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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.0% - 0.5% | 0.0% |
Fair Value | $10.24 - $11.65 | $10.70 |
Upside | 21.3% - 38.0% | 26.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Jan-25 | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 | |
Revenue | 796 | 822 | 862 | 941 | 1,091 | 1,198 | |
% Growth | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 9.2% | 15.9% | 9.8% | |
EBITDA | 33 | 152 | 171 | 206 | 233 | 264 | |
% of Revenue | 4.1% | 18.5% | 19.9% | 21.9% | 21.4% | 22.0% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
(USD in millions) | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 152 | 171 | 206 | 233 | 264 | 264 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (22) | (24) | (40) | (41) | (48) | (7) | |
EBIT | 130 | 147 | 166 | 192 | 215 | 256 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (19) | (22) | (25) | (29) | (32) | (38) | |
NOPAT | 23 | 110 | 125 | 141 | 163 | 183 | 218 |
Capital Expenditures | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (8) |
NWC Investment | 14 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 32 | 23 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 6 | 22 | 24 | 40 | 41 | 48 | 7 |
Free Cash Flow | 37 | 132 | 151 | 192 | 229 | 246 | 217 |
% Growth | 260% | 15% | 27% | 19% | 7% | -12% |