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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.8% - 10.8% | 11.3% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.0% - 0.5% | 0.0% |
Fair Value | $9.66 - $11.07 | $10.14 |
Upside | 22.9% - 40.9% | 29.0% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
Revenue | 5,629 | 7,157 | 8,084 | 8,568 | 10,134 | 10,998 | |
% Growth | 15.2% | 27.1% | 12.9% | 6.0% | 18.3% | 8.5% | |
EBITDA | -68 | 281 | 418 | 504 | 704 | 827 | |
% of Revenue | -1.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 281 | 418 | 504 | 704 | 827 | 827 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (199) | (183) | (151) | (187) | (187) | (35) | |
EBIT | 83 | 236 | 354 | 516 | 641 | 792 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (12) | (33) | (50) | (72) | (90) | (111) | |
NOPAT | (119) | 71 | 203 | 304 | 444 | 551 | 681 |
Capital Expenditures | (16) | (20) | (23) | (25) | (34) | (37) | (37) |
NWC Investment | 17 | 35 | 21 | 11 | 35 | 20 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 71 | 199 | 183 | 151 | 187 | 187 | 35 |
Free Cash Flow | (48) | 284 | 384 | 441 | 633 | 720 | 680 |
% Growth | NM | 35% | 15% | 43% | 14% | -6% |