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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.5x - 1.6x | 1.6x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.2x - 1.3x | 1.3x |
| Fair Value | $16.82 - $20.94 | $18.88 |
| Upside | 34.3% - 67.3% | 50.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| The Mosaic Company | MOS | NYSE:MOS |
| Fortitude Gold Corporation | FTCO | PINC:FTCO |
| Steel Dynamics, Inc. | STLD | NasdaqGS:STLD |
| Royal Gold, Inc. | RGLD | NasdaqGS:RGLD |
| Worthington Steel, Inc. | WS | NYSE:WS |
| Compass Minerals International, Inc. | CMP | NYSE:CMP |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| MOS | FTCO | STLD | RGLD | WS | CMP | |||
| NYSE:MOS | PINC:FTCO | NasdaqGS:STLD | NasdaqGS:RGLD | NYSE:WS | NYSE:CMP | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 4.5% | 19.9% | 10.9% | 11.2% | NM- | 0.6% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -3.4% | -23.1% | -1.6% | 3.4% | 17.3% | -0.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -18.8% | -48.9% | -7.4% | 19.1% | -6.8% | -9.3% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 13.1% | 17.2% | 16.6% | 47.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.4% | 26.0% | 16.8% | 50.7% | 3.8% | 6.4% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.6% | -1.4% | 11.1% | 60.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.6% | -1.4% | 8.5% | 60.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.08x | 1.39x | 1.28x | 11.99x | 0.45x | 1.34x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 19.3x | -101.2x | 15.1x | 19.9x | 9.2x | 53.0x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.83x | 2.11x | 1.11x | 16.51x | 0.41x | 0.48x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.45x | 1.28x | 11.99x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.19x | 1.64x | 2.52x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.49x | 1.56x | 1.64x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 1,083 | 1,083 | 1,083 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,608 | 1,693 | 1,778 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (929) | (929) | (929) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 680 | 764 | 849 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 41.5 | 41.5 | 41.5 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 16.37 | 18.41 | 20.45 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 16.37 | 18.41 | 20.45 | 12.52 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 30.8% | 47.1% | 63.4% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | MOS | FTCO | STLD | RGLD | WS | CMP | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,017 | 52 | 22,087 | 8,550 | 1,440 | 1,448 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 273 | 27 | 1,207 | 195 | 63 | 46 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,533 | 0 | 0 | 3,043 | 123 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (4,450) | 0 | (4,196) | (5) | (189) | (974) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (132) | 0 | (9) | (12) | (131) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 9,241 | 79 | 19,088 | 11,771 | 1,306 | 520 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 317.2 | 24.2 | 149.9 | 65.8 | 50.7 | 41.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 29.13 | 3.26 | 127.34 | 178.87 | 25.73 | 12.52 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 29.13 | 3.26 | 127.34 | 178.87 | 25.73 | 12.52 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |