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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.7x - 10.8x | 10.2x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 8.7x - 9.6x | 9.1x |
Fair Value | $37.92 - $45.65 | $41.78 |
Upside | -2.6% - 17.2% | 7.3% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
CMS Energy Corporation | CMS | NYSE:CMS |
NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. | NWE | NasdaqGS:NWE |
Consolidated Edison, Inc. | ED | NYSE:ED |
DTE Energy Company | DTE | NYSE:DTE |
Black Hills Corporation | BKH | NYSE:BKH |
Avista Corporation | AVA | NYSE:AVA |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
CMS | NWE | ED | DTE | BKH | AVA | ||
NYSE:CMS | NasdaqGS:NWE | NYSE:ED | NYSE:DTE | NYSE:BKH | NYSE:AVA | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 6.4% | |
3Y CAGR | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 8.5% | 12.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 10.8% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 32.6% | 34.3% | 34.6% | 21.1% | 33.2% | 30.4% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 33.1% | 35.7% | 34.8% | 26.5% | 31.1% | 29.9% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 36.0% | 36.6% | 35.6% | 26.7% | 36.2% | 30.0% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 36.0% | 38.6% | 35.5% | 25.3% | 35.5% | 31.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 4.97x | 4.33x | 3.95x | 3.81x | 3.91x | 3.08x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.8x | 11.2x | 11.1x | 15.0x | 11.0x | 9.9x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 22.3x | 18.7x | 18.2x | 23.4x | 16.9x | 18.1x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.0x | 11.2x | 15.0x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.1x | 11.5x | 12.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.7x | 10.2x | 10.8x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 608 | 608 | 608 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,920 | 6,231 | 6,543 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,861) | (2,861) | (2,861) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 3,059 | 3,370 | 3,682 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 80.6 | 80.6 | 80.6 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 37.97 | 41.84 | 45.70 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 37.97 | 41.84 | 45.70 | 38.95 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -2.5% | 7.4% | 17.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | CMS | NWE | ED | DTE | BKH | AVA | |
Enterprise Value | 38,620 | 6,521 | 62,295 | 51,758 | 8,628 | 5,999 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 465 | 56 | 360 | 33 | 7 | 18 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 71 | 0 | 1,136 | 304 | 0 | 167 | |
(-) Debt | (16,966) | (3,135) | (26,216) | (23,437) | (4,312) | (3,046) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (588) | 0 | 0 | (6) | (82) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | (224) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 21,378 | 3,442 | 37,575 | 28,652 | 4,241 | 3,138 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 299.1 | 61.4 | 360.3 | 207.5 | 72.5 | 80.6 | |
Implied Stock Price | 71.47 | 56.09 | 104.29 | 138.07 | 58.49 | 38.95 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 71.47 | 56.09 | 104.29 | 138.07 | 58.49 | 38.95 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |