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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 2.4x - 2.6x | 2.5x |
Fair Value | $125.76 - $146.11 | $135.60 |
Upside | -15.6% - -2.0% | -9.0% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 3,583 | 3,639 | 3,902 | 4,192 | 4,499 | 4,840 | 5,009 | 5,110 | 5,212 | 5,316 | 5,422 |
% Growth | 2.7% | 1.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 775 | 805 | 861 | 934 | 1,003 | 1,079 | 1,117 | 1,139 | 1,162 | 1,185 | 1,209 |
% of Revenue | 21.6% | 22.1% | 22.1% | 22.3% | 22.3% | 22.3% | 22.3% | 22.3% | 22.3% | 22.3% | 22.3% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 805 | 861 | 934 | 1,003 | 1,079 | 1,117 | 1,139 | 1,162 | 1,185 | 1,209 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (274) | (277) | (290) | (342) | (363) | (376) | (383) | (391) | (399) | (407) | |
EBIT | 531 | 584 | 644 | 661 | 716 | 741 | 756 | 771 | 786 | 802 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (133) | (146) | (161) | (165) | (179) | (185) | (189) | (193) | (197) | (201) | |
NOPAT | 384 | 398 | 438 | 483 | 496 | 537 | 556 | 567 | 578 | 590 | 602 |
Capital Expenditures | (276) | (290) | (305) | (335) | (360) | (387) | (361) | (368) | (372) | (367) | (369) |
NWC Investment | (16) | (9) | (44) | (48) | (51) | (57) | (28) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (18) |
(+) D&A | 264 | 274 | 277 | 290 | 342 | 363 | 376 | 383 | 391 | 399 | 407 |
Free Cash Flow | 355 | 373 | 366 | 389 | 427 | 456 | 543 | 565 | 580 | 604 | 622 |
% Growth | -2% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 19% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% |