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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 14.3x - 15.8x | 15.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 9.3x - 10.2x | 9.8x |
| Fair Value | ₹50.40 - ₹57.61 | ₹54 |
| Upside | -7.0% - 6.3% | -0.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Total Transport Systems Limited | TOTAL | NSEI:TOTAL |
| Tiger Logistics (India) Limited | 536264 | BSE:536264 |
| Mahindra Logistics Limited | MAHLOG | NSEI:MAHLOG |
| Gateway Distriparks Limited | GATEWAY | NSEI:GATEWAY |
| Sical Logistics Limited | SICALLOG | NSEI:SICALLOG |
| Snowman Logistics Limited | SNOWMAN | NSEI:SNOWMAN |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| TOTAL | 536264 | MAHLOG | GATEWAY | SICALLOG | SNOWMAN | ||
| NSEI:TOTAL | BSE:536264 | NSEI:MAHLOG | NSEI:GATEWAY | NSEI:SICALLOG | NSEI:SNOWMAN | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -11.6% | 1.4% | 20.9% | 33.8% | -37.9% | 7.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 22.0% | NM- | 47.4% | 3.3% | NM- | 16.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 27.7% | 134.7% | 241.2% | -13.1% | 1113.8% | -4.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 25.2% | -1.5% | 20.3% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 2.8% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 24.7% | 6.8% | 17.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 1.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 23.3% | 7.2% | 17.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 1.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 21.3% | 6.9% | 13.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.23x | 1.18x | 0.51x | 2.33x | 6.65x | 2.23x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.4x | 21.6x | 11.0x | 10.9x | 96.7x | 16.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 26.5x | 22.0x | 53.9x | 13.6x | -41.7x | 40.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.9x | 14.4x | 96.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.8x | 13.3x | 18.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.3x | 15.1x | 15.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 748 | 748 | 748 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 10,711 | 11,275 | 11,839 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,027) | (3,027) | (3,027) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 7,685 | 8,248 | 8,812 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 167.1 | 167.1 | 167.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 45.99 | 49.37 | 52.74 | ||||
| FX Rate: INR/INR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 45.99 | 49.37 | 52.74 | 54.21 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -15.2% | -8.9% | -2.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TOTAL | 536264 | MAHLOG | GATEWAY | SICALLOG | SNOWMAN | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,492 | 6,081 | 31,139 | 35,318 | 10,866 | 12,084 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 165 | 50 | 966 | 432 | 1,199 | 46 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (400) | (343) | (8,688) | (4,801) | (5,334) | (3,073) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (164) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,257 | 5,787 | 23,273 | 30,948 | 6,731 | 9,058 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 16.1 | 105.7 | 72.1 | 499.6 | 65.2 | 167.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 77.96 | 54.74 | 322.65 | 61.94 | 103.16 | 54.21 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 77.96 | 54.74 | 322.65 | 61.94 | 103.16 | 54.21 | |
| Trading Currency | INR | INR | INR | INR | INR | INR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |