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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.3% - 3.3% | 2.8% |
| Fair Value | ₹11.58 - ₹18.16 | ₹14.33 |
| Upside | -37.2% - -1.5% | -22.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (INR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| Revenue | 16,861 | 20,233 | 22,762 | 24,469 | 25,325 | 25,832 | 26,349 | 26,876 | 27,413 | 27,961 | 28,521 | |
| % Growth | 43.3% | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 1,398 | 2,604 | 3,498 | 4,005 | 4,145 | 4,228 | 4,313 | 4,399 | 4,487 | 4,577 | 4,668 | |
| % of Revenue | 8.3% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 16.4% | 16.4% | 16.4% | 16.4% | 16.4% | 16.4% | 16.4% | 16.4% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (INR in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 2,604 | 3,498 | 4,005 | 4,145 | 4,228 | 4,313 | 4,399 | 4,487 | 4,577 | 4,668 | 4,668 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (645) | (726) | (780) | (807) | (823) | (840) | (857) | (874) | (891) | (909) | (1,110) | |
| EBIT | 1,959 | 2,772 | 3,225 | 3,338 | 3,405 | 3,473 | 3,542 | 3,613 | 3,685 | 3,759 | 3,558 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (333) | (471) | (548) | (567) | (579) | (590) | (602) | (614) | (627) | (639) | (605) | |
| NOPAT | 611 | 1,626 | 2,301 | 2,677 | 2,770 | 2,826 | 2,882 | 2,940 | 2,999 | 3,059 | 3,120 | 2,953 |
| Capital Expenditures | (774) | (929) | (1,045) | (1,124) | (1,163) | (1,186) | (1,158) | (1,169) | (1,171) | (1,166) | (1,169) | (1,169) |
| NWC Investment | (1,191) | (789) | (592) | (399) | (200) | (118) | (121) | (123) | (126) | (128) | (131) | (183) |
| (+) D&A | 661 | 645 | 726 | 780 | 807 | 823 | 840 | 857 | 874 | 891 | 909 | 1,110 |
| Free Cash Flow | (693) | 552 | 1,390 | 1,934 | 2,214 | 2,344 | 2,444 | 2,504 | 2,576 | 2,656 | 2,730 | 2,711 |
| % Growth | NM | 152% | 39% | 15% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | -1% | |