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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 29.8x - 31.8x | 30.8x |
Fair Value | ₹7.04 - ₹8.66 | ₹7.83 |
Upside | -43.9% - -31.0% | -37.6% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(INR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 |
Revenue | 2,690 | 2,690 | 2,690 | 2,690 | 2,690 | 2,690 | 2,690 | 2,690 | 2,690 | 2,690 | 2,690 |
% Growth | -1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 10 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 |
% of Revenue | 0.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(INR in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
EBITDA | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
EBIT | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (16) | |
NOPAT | 4 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 |
Capital Expenditures | (36) | (25) | (26) | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) |
NWC Investment | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Free Cash Flow | (23) | 24 | 22 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
% Growth | NM | -5% | -14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |