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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.5% - 9.5% | 10.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.4x - 0.5x | 0.4x |
| Fair Value | ₹68.59 - ₹96.81 | ₹82.27 |
| Upside | -47.8% - -26.3% | -37.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (INR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 |
| Revenue | 7,763,519 | 7,538,618 | 7,273,944 | 8,243,828 | 8,862,115 | 9,172,289 | 9,355,734 | 9,542,849 | 9,733,706 | 9,928,380 | 10,126,948 |
| % Growth | -7.8% | -2.9% | -3.5% | 13.3% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 768,632 | 295,776 | 459,704 | 503,649 | 630,044 | 652,095 | 665,137 | 678,440 | 692,009 | 705,849 | 719,966 |
| % of Revenue | 9.9% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 295,776 | 459,704 | 503,649 | 630,044 | 652,095 | 665,137 | 678,440 | 692,009 | 705,849 | 719,966 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (146,640) | (172,603) | (188,161) | (202,273) | (209,353) | (213,540) | (217,810) | (222,167) | (226,610) | (231,142) | |
| EBIT | 149,136 | 287,101 | 315,488 | 427,771 | 442,743 | 451,598 | 460,630 | 469,842 | 479,239 | 488,824 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (37,284) | (71,775) | (78,872) | (106,943) | (110,686) | (112,899) | (115,157) | (117,461) | (119,810) | (122,206) | |
| NOPAT | 458,034 | 111,852 | 215,326 | 236,616 | 320,828 | 332,057 | 338,698 | 345,472 | 352,382 | 359,429 | 366,618 |
| Capital Expenditures | (371,754) | (350,000) | (314,754) | (320,000) | (344,000) | (356,040) | (340,013) | (346,684) | (347,579) | (344,759) | (346,341) |
| NWC Investment | 1,063 | 366 | 430 | (1,577) | (1,005) | (504) | (298) | (304) | (310) | (316) | (323) |
| (+) D&A | 157,921 | 146,640 | 172,603 | 188,161 | 202,273 | 209,353 | 213,540 | 217,810 | 222,167 | 226,610 | 231,142 |
| Free Cash Flow | 245,264 | (91,142) | 73,605 | 103,200 | 178,096 | 184,865 | 211,926 | 216,294 | 226,659 | 240,964 | 251,096 |
| % Growth | NM | 40% | 73% | 4% | 15% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 4% | ||