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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 7.5x - 9.5x | 8.5x |
| Fair Value | ₹103.89 - ₹171.02 | ₹136.28 |
| Upside | -44.0% - -7.8% | -26.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (INR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 |
| Revenue | 28,339 | 25,482 | 27,751 | 30,821 | 33,133 | 34,292 | 34,978 | 35,678 | 36,391 | 37,119 | 37,861 |
| % Growth | -2.4% | -10.1% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 2,334 | 1,719 | 2,431 | 3,165 | 3,733 | 3,864 | 3,941 | 4,020 | 4,100 | 4,182 | 4,266 |
| % of Revenue | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (INR in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| EBITDA | 1,719 | 2,431 | 3,165 | 3,733 | 3,864 | 3,941 | 4,020 | 4,100 | 4,182 | 4,266 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (1,273) | (1,413) | (1,577) | (1,695) | (1,754) | (1,789) | (1,825) | (1,861) | (1,899) | (1,937) | |
| EBIT | 446 | 1,019 | 1,588 | 2,038 | 2,110 | 2,152 | 2,195 | 2,239 | 2,284 | 2,329 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (151) | (346) | (540) | (693) | (717) | (732) | (746) | (761) | (776) | (792) | |
| NOPAT | 997 | 294 | 672 | 1,048 | 1,345 | 1,392 | 1,420 | 1,449 | 1,478 | 1,507 | 1,537 |
| Capital Expenditures | (1,834) | (1,849) | (1,750) | (1,800) | (1,935) | (2,003) | (1,913) | (1,950) | (1,955) | (1,939) | (1,948) |
| NWC Investment | 58 | 235 | (187) | (253) | (190) | (96) | (57) | (58) | (59) | (60) | (61) |
| (+) D&A | 824 | 1,273 | 1,413 | 1,577 | 1,695 | 1,754 | 1,789 | 1,825 | 1,861 | 1,899 | 1,937 |
| Free Cash Flow | 45 | (46) | 148 | 572 | 915 | 1,048 | 1,240 | 1,266 | 1,325 | 1,407 | 1,465 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | 287% | 60% | 15% | 18% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 4% | |