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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.0% - 7.0% | 7.5% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.0% - 3.0% | 2.5% |
| Fair Value | ₹10,871 - ₹15,868 | ₹12,875 |
| Upside | -33.8% - -3.3% | -21.6% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (INR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| Revenue | 176,909 | 394,452 | 574,878 | 731,741 | 974,409 | 1,181,284 | 1,328,945 | 1,428,615 | 1,478,617 | 1,508,189 | 1,538,353 | |
| % Growth | 45.1% | 123.0% | 45.7% | 27.3% | 33.2% | 21.2% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 6,642 | 14,864 | 22,158 | 29,245 | 36,244 | 40,605 | 58,970 | 70,536 | 73,005 | 74,465 | 75,954 | |
| % of Revenue | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (INR in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 14,864 | 22,158 | 29,245 | 36,244 | 40,605 | 58,970 | 70,536 | 73,005 | 74,465 | 75,954 | 75,954 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (2,702) | (2,721) | (3,539) | (8,678) | (4,728) | (5,319) | (5,718) | (5,918) | (6,036) | (6,157) | (5,571) | |
| EBIT | 12,162 | 19,437 | 25,706 | 27,566 | 35,877 | 53,651 | 64,818 | 67,087 | 68,428 | 69,797 | 70,383 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (3,040) | (4,859) | (6,426) | (6,892) | (8,969) | (13,413) | (16,204) | (16,772) | (17,107) | (17,449) | (17,596) | |
| NOPAT | 4,027 | 9,121 | 14,578 | 19,279 | 20,675 | 26,908 | 40,238 | 48,613 | 50,315 | 51,321 | 52,348 | 52,787 |
| Capital Expenditures | (5,844) | (7,936) | (7,000) | (6,500) | (5,750) | (5,750) | (6,000) | (5,833) | (5,861) | (5,898) | (5,864) | (5,864) |
| NWC Investment | 136 | 540 | 448 | 389 | 602 | 513 | 366 | 247 | 124 | 73 | 75 | 95 |
| (+) D&A | 1,273 | 2,702 | 2,721 | 3,539 | 8,678 | 4,728 | 5,319 | 5,718 | 5,918 | 6,036 | 6,157 | 5,571 |
| Free Cash Flow | (408) | 4,427 | 10,746 | 16,707 | 24,204 | 26,399 | 39,924 | 48,745 | 50,496 | 51,533 | 52,715 | 52,590 |
| % Growth | NM | 143% | 55% | 45% | 9% | 51% | 22% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 0% | |