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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 53.3x - 58.9x | 56.1x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.1x - 4.5x | 4.3x |
Fair Value | ₦4.87 - ₦5.75 | ₦5.31 |
Upside | -2.5% - 15.0% | 6.2% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Chellarams Plc | CHELLARAM | NGSE:CHELLARAM |
John Holt Plc | JOHNHOLT | NGSE:JOHNHOLT |
FTG Holdings Ltd | FTGH | NASE:FTGH |
C & I Leasing Plc | CILEASING | NGSE:CILEASING |
KAP Limited | KAP | JSE:KAP |
SCOA Nigeria Plc | SCOA | NGSE:SCOA |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
CHELLARAM | JOHNHOLT | FTGH | CILEASING | KAP | SCOA | ||
NGSE:CHELLARAM | NGSE:JOHNHOLT | NASE:FTGH | NGSE:CILEASING | JSE:KAP | NGSE:SCOA | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 7.8% | 23.9% | -1.4% | 27.2% | |
3Y CAGR | -34.4% | NM- | -5.4% | 54.0% | -0.4% | -14.6% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 74.7% | 253.2% | -27.9% | 63.3% | 8.1% | -74.1% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 7.0% | 27.9% | 8.1% | 39.8% | 12.4% | 1.1% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 2.7% | 4.3% | 8.9% | 49.5% | 11.0% | 3.9% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 2.8% | 118.0% | 6.9% | 54.3% | 11.1% | 3.2% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 2.8% | 225.9% | 6.9% | 55.3% | 10.7% | 0.8% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.51x | 3.27x | 0.50x | 1.95x | 0.47x | 0.44x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 18.1x | 1.4x | 7.2x | 3.5x | 4.4x | 58.6x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 28.1x | 1.5x | 11.5x | 6.1x | 7.4x | 2382.2x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.4x | 4.4x | 18.1x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -30.3x | -1.0x | 5.6x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 53.3x | 56.1x | 58.9x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 94 | 94 | 94 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,001 | 5,264 | 5,528 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,252) | (2,252) | (2,252) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 2,749 | 3,012 | 3,275 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 649.8 | 649.8 | 649.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 4.23 | 4.64 | 5.04 | ||||
FX Rate: NGN/NGN | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.23 | 4.64 | 5.04 | 5.00 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -15.4% | -7.3% | 0.8% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | CHELLARAM | JOHNHOLT | FTGH | CILEASING | KAP | SCOA | |
Enterprise Value | 11,801 | 4,215 | 2,039 | 66,241 | 13,776 | 5,501 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 490 | 257 | 54 | 7,332 | 1,218 | 2,618 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 78 | 0 | 7,816 | 255 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (7,137) | (658) | (1,858) | (56,481) | (10,536) | (5,374) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 1,734 | 0 | 0 | (1,555) | (261) | 504 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 6,889 | 3,892 | 235 | 23,353 | 4,452 | 3,249 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 722.9 | 389.2 | 178.1 | 2,948.6 | 2,501.0 | 649.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 9.53 | 10.00 | 1.32 | 7.92 | 1.78 | 5.00 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 9.53 | 10.00 | 1.32 | 7.92 | 1.78 | 5.00 | |
Trading Currency | NGN | NGN | KES | NGN | ZAR | NGN | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |