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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 9.6x - 11.6x | 10.6x |
| Fair Value | ₦0.36 - ₦0.43 | ₦0.39 |
| Upside | -20.4% - -4.3% | -12.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (NGN in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 4,349 | 4,892 | 5,259 | 5,444 | 5,552 | 5,663 |
| % Growth | 24.5% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 30 | 152 | 216 | 223 | 228 | 232 |
| % of Revenue | 0.7% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (NGN in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 152 | 216 | 223 | 228 | 232 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (97) | (104) | (108) | (110) | (112) | |
| EBIT | 55 | 112 | 116 | 118 | 121 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (25) | (50) | (52) | (53) | (54) | |
| NOPAT | (45) | 30 | 62 | 64 | 65 | 66 |
| Capital Expenditures | #NUM! | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| NWC Investment | 92 | 59 | 40 | 20 | 12 | 12 |
| (+) D&A | 113 | 97 | 104 | 108 | 110 | 112 |
| Free Cash Flow | #NUM! | 185 | 204 | 190 | 186 | 189 |
| % Growth | NM | 10% | -7% | -2% | 2% | |