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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.5% - 10.5% | 11.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 21.5x - 23.5x | 22.5x |
Fair Value | $127.81 - $142.72 | $135.13 |
Upside | -5.4% - 5.6% | 0.0% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Jan-25 | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 |
Revenue | 130,497 | 196,967 | 248,000 | 289,604 | 286,386 | 322,776 |
% Growth | 114.2% | 50.9% | 25.9% | 16.8% | -1.1% | 12.7% |
EBITDA | 83,317 | 116,386 | 152,493 | 173,920 | 173,892 | 194,537 |
% of Revenue | 63.8% | 59.1% | 61.5% | 60.1% | 60.7% | 60.3% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(USD in millions) | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 | |
EBITDA | 116,386 | 152,493 | 173,920 | 173,892 | 194,537 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 11,514 | 19,152 | 16,243 | 20,364 | 30,562 | |
D&A | (5,444) | (6,855) | (8,005) | (7,916) | (8,922) | |
EBIT | 122,455 | 164,790 | 182,158 | 186,340 | 216,177 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (17,144) | (23,071) | (25,502) | (26,088) | (30,265) | |
NOPAT | 70,050 | 105,311 | 141,719 | 156,656 | 160,252 | 185,912 |
Capital Expenditures | (3,236) | (4,527) | (4,853) | (4,692) | (5,362) | (5,928) |
NWC Investment | (7,720) | (7,376) | (5,663) | (4,616) | 357 | (4,038) |
(+) D&A | 1,864 | 5,444 | 6,855 | 8,005 | 7,916 | 8,922 |
Free Cash Flow | 60,957 | 98,853 | 138,058 | 155,352 | 163,163 | 184,868 |
% Growth | 62% | 40% | 13% | 5% | 13% |