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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 12.7x - 14.0x | 13.4x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 13.1x - 14.5x | 13.8x |
Fair Value | $21.35 - $23.89 | $22.62 |
Upside | 50.8% - 68.7% | 59.8% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Chemed Corporation | CHE | NYSE:CHE |
HCA Healthcare, Inc. | HCA | NYSE:HCA |
Encompass Health Corporation | EHC | NYSE:EHC |
Select Medical Holdings Corporation | SEM | NYSE:SEM |
National HealthCare Corporation | NHC | NYSEAM:NHC |
National Research Corporation | NRC | NasdaqGS:NRC |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
CHE | HCA | EHC | SEM | NHC | NRC | ||
NYSE:CHE | NYSE:HCA | NYSE:EHC | NYSE:SEM | NYSEAM:NHC | NasdaqGS:NRC | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | -9.7% | 5.3% | -3.2% | |
3Y CAGR | 2.8% | 3.4% | 10.1% | -19.0% | 48.6% | -10.1% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 10.7% | 10.5% | 17.2% | 3.9% | 38.8% | -10.0% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 18.0% | 20.0% | 20.8% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 34.2% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 17.6% | 19.6% | 20.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 30.9% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 17.7% | 19.6% | 21.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 28.9% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 18.0% | 19.9% | 22.4% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 29.2% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 2.64x | 1.85x | 2.60x | 0.94x | 1.03x | 2.73x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.7x | 9.3x | 11.6x | 12.7x | 10.3x | 9.4x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 16.9x | 12.2x | 15.5x | 18.7x | 14.9x | 11.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.3x | 11.6x | 14.7x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.7x | 18.6x | 21.9x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.7x | 13.4x | 14.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 41 | 41 | 41 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 523 | 551 | 578 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (63) | (63) | (63) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 460 | 487 | 515 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 20.18 | 21.38 | 22.59 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 20.18 | 21.38 | 22.59 | 14.16 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 42.5% | 51.0% | 59.6% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | CHE | HCA | EHC | SEM | NHC | NRC | |
Enterprise Value | 6,571 | 131,577 | 14,311 | 4,911 | 1,421 | 386 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 174 | 1,167 | 96 | 53 | 243 | 3 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 1,207 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (145) | (46,436) | (2,703) | (2,787) | (203) | (66) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (3,081) | (779) | (327) | (3) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 6,600 | 84,434 | 10,925 | 1,851 | 1,488 | 323 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 14.6 | 240.6 | 100.8 | 128.5 | 15.5 | 22.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 452.87 | 350.97 | 108.39 | 14.40 | 96.21 | 14.16 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 452.87 | 350.97 | 108.39 | 14.40 | 96.21 | 14.16 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |