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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Ps Multiple | 0.7x - 0.8x | 0.7x |
| Selected Fwd Ps Multiple | 0.6x - 0.7x | 0.6x |
| Fair Value | $38.80 - $42.88 | $40.84 |
| Upside | 18.9% - 31.4% | 25.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Nutrien Ltd. | - | TSX:NTR |
| The Mosaic Company | - | BMV:MOS* |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | - | BMV:APD* |
| Yara International ASA | - | DB:IU2 |
| CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | - | BMV:CF* |
| Methanex Corporation | - | NasdaqGS:MEOH |
| Select Price / LTM Sales Ratio | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| NTR | MOS * | APD * | IU2 | CF * | MEOH | |||
| TSX:NTR | BMV:MOS* | BMV:APD* | DB:IU2 | BMV:CF* | NasdaqGS:MEOH | |||
| Historical Sales Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 1.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -2.3% | -3.4% | 5.4% | -5.8% | -3.2% | -5.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -9.5% | -13.4% | -1.1% | -3.4% | 0.7% | 2.8% | ||
| Historical Net Income Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 8.5% | 8.9% | 20.6% | 4.8% | 23.1% | 6.8% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.5% | 8.5% | 18.2% | 0.3% | 23.0% | 4.7% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 2.7% | 1.6% | 31.8% | 0.1% | 20.5% | 4.4% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.1% | 3.3% | 12.9% | 2.0% | 21.8% | 6.0% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.9x | 7.6x | 17.1x | 7.8x | 6.9x | 5.8x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.2x | 1.0x | 5.2x | 0.6x | 2.4x | 0.6x | ||
| LTM P/E Ratio | 54.6x | 31.2x | 40.1x | 31.5x | 11.0x | 9.9x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark LTM P/S Ratio | 0.6x | 1.2x | 5.2x | |||||
| Historical LTM P/S Ratio | 0.6x | 0.8x | 1.3x | |||||
| Selected Price / Sales Multiple | 0.7x | 0.7x | 0.8x | |||||
| (x) LTM Sales | 3,701 | 3,701 | 3,701 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,621 | 2,759 | 2,897 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 67.4 | 67.4 | 67.4 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 38.89 | 40.94 | 42.99 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 38.89 | 40.94 | 42.99 | 32.64 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 19.2% | 25.4% | 31.7% | |||||
| Equity Value | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | NTR | MOS * | APD * | IU2 | CF * | MEOH | |
| Value of Common Equity | 28,797 | 10,630 | 61,353 | 9,220 | 14,215 | 2,200 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 487.5 | 317.2 | 222.5 | 254.7 | 224.5 | 67.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 59.07 | 33.51 | 275.69 | 36.19 | 63.33 | 32.64 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.73 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1.14 | 0.05 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 81.08 | 650.00 | 5,347.84 | 31.88 | 1,228.44 | 32.64 | |
| Trading Currency | CAD | MXN | MXN | EUR | MXN | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.73 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1.14 | 0.05 | 1.00 | |