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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.8x - 2.0x | 1.9x |
Fair Value | $317.92 - $370.92 | $343.53 |
Upside | -21.5% - -8.4% | -15.2% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 6,828 | 7,440 | 8,204 | 8,828 | 10,405 | 11,238 | 11,631 | 11,864 | 12,101 | 12,343 | 12,590 |
% Growth | 14.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 17.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 668 | 767 | 927 | 1,056 | 1,321 | 1,461 | 1,512 | 1,542 | 1,573 | 1,605 | 1,637 |
% of Revenue | 9.8% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 767 | 927 | 1,056 | 1,321 | 1,461 | 1,512 | 1,542 | 1,573 | 1,605 | 1,637 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (137) | (183) | (186) | (228) | (225) | (233) | (238) | (242) | (247) | (252) | |
EBIT | 630 | 744 | 870 | 1,093 | 1,236 | 1,279 | 1,305 | 1,331 | 1,358 | 1,385 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (95) | (112) | (131) | (164) | (185) | (192) | (196) | (200) | (204) | (208) | |
NOPAT | 433 | 536 | 632 | 740 | 929 | 1,051 | 1,087 | 1,109 | 1,131 | 1,154 | 1,177 |
Capital Expenditures | (215) | (231) | (207) | (254) | (240) | (257) | (250) | (249) | (252) | (251) | (251) |
NWC Investment | (191) | (137) | (171) | (140) | (354) | (187) | (88) | (52) | (53) | (54) | (55) |
(+) D&A | 158 | 137 | 183 | 186 | 228 | 225 | 233 | 238 | 242 | 247 | 252 |
Free Cash Flow | 186 | 304 | 437 | 532 | 563 | 832 | 982 | 1,045 | 1,068 | 1,096 | 1,123 |
% Growth | 44% | 22% | 6% | 48% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 2% |