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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.8% - 10.8% | 11.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 8.3x - 10.3x | 9.3x |
Fair Value | $43.80 - $52.57 | $48.03 |
Upside | 21.3% - 45.5% | 33.0% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 1,311 | 1,380 | 1,525 | 1,639 | 1,696 | 1,730 | 1,765 | 1,800 | 1,836 | 1,873 | 1,910 |
% Growth | -21.1% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 189 | 215 | 281 | 318 | 330 | 336 | 343 | 350 | 357 | 364 | 371 |
% of Revenue | 14.4% | 15.6% | 18.4% | 19.4% | 19.4% | 19.4% | 19.4% | 19.4% | 19.4% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 215 | 281 | 318 | 330 | 336 | 343 | 350 | 357 | 364 | 371 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (125) | (115) | (123) | (128) | (130) | (133) | (135) | (138) | (141) | (144) | |
EBIT | 90 | 166 | 195 | 202 | 206 | 210 | 214 | 219 | 223 | 227 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (17) | (32) | (37) | (38) | (39) | (40) | (41) | (42) | (42) | (43) | |
NOPAT | 42 | 73 | 135 | 158 | 164 | 167 | 170 | 174 | 177 | 181 | 184 |
Capital Expenditures | (73) | (100) | (111) | (120) | (124) | (126) | (123) | (125) | (125) | (124) | (125) |
NWC Investment | 158 | (31) | (65) | (51) | (26) | (15) | (16) | (16) | (16) | (17) | (17) |
(+) D&A | 137 | 125 | 115 | 123 | 128 | 130 | 133 | 135 | 138 | 141 | 144 |
Free Cash Flow | 263 | 67 | 73 | 110 | 141 | 155 | 164 | 169 | 174 | 181 | 187 |
% Growth | -75% | 10% | 51% | 28% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% |