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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 21.6x - 23.9x | 22.7x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 12.7x - 14.1x | 13.4x |
| Fair Value | $38.35 - $42.06 | $40.21 |
| Upside | 6.7% - 17.1% | 11.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| H World Group Limited | HTHT | NasdaqGS:HTHT |
| Tuniu Corporation | TOUR | NasdaqGM:TOUR |
| Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited | TNGC.F | OTCPK:TNGC.F |
| Haidilao International Holding Ltd. | HDAL.F | OTCPK:HDAL.F |
| TH International Limited | THCH | NasdaqCM:THCH |
| Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited | ATAT | NasdaqGS:ATAT |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| HTHT | TOUR | TNGC.F | HDAL.F | THCH | ATAT | ||
| NasdaqGS:HTHT | NasdaqGM:TOUR | OTCPK:TNGC.F | OTCPK:HDAL.F | NasdaqCM:THCH | NasdaqGS:ATAT | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 19.8% | NM- | 25.5% | 13.8% | NM- | 77.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 216.5% | NM- | 52.5% | 113.9% | NM- | 102.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.4% | -40.8% | 62.6% | 9.4% | 49.7% | 39.3% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.6% | -78.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | -45.9% | 14.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 21.6% | 12.0% | 14.4% | 13.4% | -34.6% | 19.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 21.8% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.2% | -20.7% | 22.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 22.0% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 14.2% | -19.1% | 21.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.88x | -0.72x | 1.94x | 1.53x | 1.71x | 4.21x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.1x | -6.6x | 9.2x | 8.3x | -24.5x | 18.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 17.6x | -7.7x | 12.5x | 10.7x | -9.0x | 19.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -9.0x | 10.7x | 17.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 17.1x | 25.3x | 60.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 21.6x | 22.7x | 23.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 1,653 | 1,653 | 1,653 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 35,674 | 37,551 | 39,429 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 3,135 | 3,135 | 3,135 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 38,809 | 40,686 | 42,564 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 137.6 | 137.6 | 137.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 282.05 | 295.70 | 309.34 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 39.32 | 41.22 | 43.13 | 35.93 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 9.4% | 14.7% | 20.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | HTHT | TOUR | TNGC.F | HDAL.F | THCH | ATAT | |
| Enterprise Value | 93,316 | (740) | 29,162 | 80,145 | 2,343 | 32,326 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 10,866 | 1,044 | 10,929 | 9,580 | 184 | 4,885 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,336 | 349 | 3,788 | 2,502 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (35,124) | (5) | (4,980) | (6,168) | (1,856) | (1,759) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (127) | 72 | (971) | 16 | (7) | 9 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 71,267 | 720 | 37,928 | 86,076 | 664 | 35,461 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 306.9 | 116.0 | 2,299.0 | 6,666.7 | 32.0 | 137.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 232.19 | 6.21 | 16.50 | 12.91 | 20.73 | 257.72 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 7.17 | 7.17 | 7.17 | 7.17 | 7.17 | 7.17 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 32.37 | 0.87 | 2.30 | 1.80 | 2.89 | 35.93 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 7.17 | 7.17 | 7.17 | 7.17 | 7.17 | 7.17 | |