Looks like there`s been an error while trying to load this page.
Our team has been notified but please contact us using the email support widget if the problem persists.
| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 2.2x - 2.4x | 2.3x |
| Fair Value | $35.43 - $39.54 | $37.42 |
| Upside | 59.5% - 78.0% | 68.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 7,248 | 9,104 | 11,058 | 13,321 | 14,986 | 16,110 | 16,674 | 17,007 | 17,348 | 17,695 | 18,048 |
| % Growth | 55.3% | 25.6% | 21.5% | 20.5% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 1,688 | 2,198 | 2,727 | 3,150 | 3,057 | 3,381 | 3,499 | 3,569 | 3,641 | 3,714 | 3,788 |
| % of Revenue | 23.3% | 24.1% | 24.7% | 23.6% | 20.4% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 21.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 2,198 | 2,727 | 3,150 | 3,057 | 3,381 | 3,499 | 3,569 | 3,641 | 3,714 | 3,788 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (77) | (111) | (134) | (151) | (162) | (168) | (171) | (175) | (178) | (182) | |
| EBIT | 2,121 | 2,616 | 3,197 | 2,906 | 3,219 | 3,331 | 3,398 | 3,466 | 3,535 | 3,606 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (764) | (942) | (1,151) | (1,046) | (1,159) | (1,199) | (1,223) | (1,248) | (1,273) | (1,298) | |
| NOPAT | 1,038 | 1,357 | 1,674 | 2,046 | 1,860 | 2,060 | 2,132 | 2,175 | 2,218 | 2,263 | 2,308 |
| Capital Expenditures | (56) | (67) | (81) | (70) | (79) | (85) | (78) | (79) | (81) | (79) | (80) |
| NWC Investment | 582 | 418 | 441 | 510 | 375 | 253 | 127 | 75 | 77 | 78 | 80 |
| (+) D&A | 65 | 77 | 111 | 134 | 151 | 162 | 168 | 171 | 175 | 178 | 182 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,629 | 1,785 | 2,145 | 2,620 | 2,307 | 2,391 | 2,349 | 2,342 | 2,389 | 2,440 | 2,490 |
| % Growth | 20% | 22% | -12% | 4% | -2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | ||