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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 13.8x - 15.8x | 14.8x |
Fair Value | $9.60 - $11.35 | $10.45 |
Upside | -38.9% - -27.8% | -33.5% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Apr-24 | Apr-25 | Apr-26 | Apr-27 | Apr-28 | Apr-29 | Apr-30 | Apr-31 | Apr-32 | Apr-33 | Apr-34 |
Revenue | 55 | 66 | 75 | 80 | 83 | 85 | 86 | 88 | 90 | 92 | 93 |
% Growth | 35.6% | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 7 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
% of Revenue | 12.9% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.0% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Apr-25 | Apr-26 | Apr-27 | Apr-28 | Apr-29 | Apr-30 | Apr-31 | Apr-32 | Apr-33 | Apr-34 | |
EBITDA | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | |
EBIT | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
NOPAT | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Capital Expenditures | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
NWC Investment | (3) | (2) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
(+) D&A | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Free Cash Flow | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
% Growth | -72% | 559% | 54% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% |