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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 7.3x - 8.0x | 7.6x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7.0x - 7.7x | 7.3x |
Fair Value | €31.88 - €36.12 | €34 |
Upside | -58.1% - -52.5% | -55.3% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Stora Enso Oyj | SEOF.F | PINC:SEOF.F |
Mondi plc | MNOD.F | PINC:MNOD.F |
Packaging Corporation of America | PKG | NYSE:PKG |
International Paper Company | IP | NYSE:IP |
Suzano S.A. | SUZ | NYSE:SUZ |
Sylvamo Corporation | 88L | MUN:88L |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
SEOF.F | MNOD.F | PKG | IP | SUZ | 88L | ||
PINC:SEOF.F | PINC:MNOD.F | NYSE:PKG | NYSE:IP | NYSE:SUZ | MUN:88L | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -17.4% | -13.9% | 1.5% | -10.7% | 45.2% | -2.3% | |
3Y CAGR | -34.2% | -11.7% | -3.9% | -16.6% | -4.0% | 10.7% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 500.0% | 0.7% | 17.8% | 13.2% | 35.7% | 6.7% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 7.6% | 11.4% | 15.1% | 7.6% | 32.7% | 11.4% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 0.4% | 7.3% | 14.4% | 6.2% | 27.0% | 11.2% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 3.6% | 7.3% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 30.8% | 11.8% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 3.9% | 7.3% | 14.5% | 5.7% | 30.8% | 11.8% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.98x | 1.09x | 2.12x | 1.51x | 3.11x | 0.83x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.5x | 8.5x | 10.3x | 13.1x | 6.3x | 5.2x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 25.1x | 14.9x | 14.6x | 26.6x | 10.1x | 7.0x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 10.1x | 14.9x | 26.6x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 6.2x | 7.0x | 8.3x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 7.3x | 7.6x | 8.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 444 | 444 | 444 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,224 | 3,394 | 3,563 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (663) | (663) | (663) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 2,561 | 2,731 | 2,900 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 69.2 | 69.2 | 69.2 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 37.00 | 39.45 | 41.90 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 32.69 | 34.85 | 37.02 | 76.13 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -57.1% | -54.2% | -51.4% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | SEOF.F | MNOD.F | PKG | IP | SUZ | 88L | |
Enterprise Value | 9,329 | 8,054 | 18,166 | 29,974 | 147,352 | 6,627 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,659 | 278 | 787 | 1,156 | 21,990 | 205 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 1,607 | 34 | 0 | 2,335 | 1,591 | 3 | |
(-) Debt | (5,737) | (2,015) | (2,772) | (10,096) | (108,408) | (871) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 150 | (493) | 0 | 0 | (131) | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 7,008 | 5,858 | 16,182 | 23,369 | 62,394 | 5,964 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 678.0 | 440.5 | 89.3 | 527.9 | 1,239.2 | 69.2 | |
Implied Stock Price | 10.34 | 13.30 | 181.22 | 44.27 | 50.35 | 86.17 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.88 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5.69 | 1.13 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 11.70 | 15.05 | 181.22 | 44.27 | 8.85 | 76.13 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.88 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5.69 | 1.13 |