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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.5% - 9.5% | 10.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.3x - 7.3x | 6.3x |
Fair Value | £2.27 - £2.80 | £2.53 |
Upside | 69.4% - 109.0% | 88.5% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(GBP in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 291 | 298 | 309 | 319 | 325 | 332 | 339 | 345 | 352 | 359 | 366 |
% Growth | -5.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 39 | 46 | 48 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 57 | 58 |
% of Revenue | 13.4% | 15.4% | 15.5% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(GBP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 46 | 48 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 57 | 58 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (14) | (14) | |
EBIT | 34 | 36 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
NOPAT | 25 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 36 | 37 |
Capital Expenditures | (6) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) |
NWC Investment | 2 | (1) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
(+) D&A | 9 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
Free Cash Flow | 31 | 32 | 34 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 |
% Growth | 5% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |