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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.9x - 0.9x | 0.9x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.8x - 0.9x | 0.8x |
| Fair Value | £0.25 - £0.27 | £0.26 |
| Upside | 7.5% - 17.4% | 12.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Serica Energy plc | SQZ | AIM:SQZ |
| Harbour Energy plc | HBR | LSE:HBR |
| Shell plc | SHEL | LSE:SHEL |
| BP p.l.c. | BP. | LSE:BP. |
| Diversified Energy Company PLC | DEC | LSE:DEC |
| Pharos Energy plc | PHAR | LSE:PHAR |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| SQZ | HBR | SHEL | BP. | DEC | PHAR | |||
| AIM:SQZ | LSE:HBR | LSE:SHEL | LSE:BP. | LSE:DEC | LSE:PHAR | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 77.7% | 21.4% | -3.8% | 3.5% | 11.2% | -0.3% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 67.4% | 21.4% | 2.8% | 6.2% | -8.1% | 5.3% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -16.5% | 66.0% | -10.2% | -10.1% | -5.9% | -14.4% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 35.3% | 19.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.7% | -7.3% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 58.3% | 24.0% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 139.4% | 53.6% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 47.1% | 25.1% | 12.0% | 5.6% | -7.2% | -12.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 40.0% | 25.1% | 12.0% | 5.6% | -7.2% | 1.6% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.57x | 1.80x | 0.81x | 0.54x | 3.39x | 0.61x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 1.4x | 7.2x | 6.8x | 9.6x | -47.3x | 38.3x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.74x | 0.69x | 0.76x | 0.48x | 1.03x | 0.73x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.54x | 0.81x | 3.39x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.84x | 0.88x | 1.85x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.86x | 0.90x | 0.95x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 138 | 138 | 138 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 118 | 124 | 130 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 17 | 17 | 17 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 134 | 140 | 147 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 410.6 | 410.6 | 410.6 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.36 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/GBP | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.23 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 9.3% | 14.3% | 19.4% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SQZ | HBR | SHEL | BP. | DEC | PHAR | |
| Enterprise Value | 499 | 11,143 | 233,040 | 99,445 | 2,529 | 106 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 362 | 830 | 39,110 | 44,426 | 6 | 31 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 7 | 25,700 | 37,302 | 6 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (219) | (6,021) | (77,078) | (71,547) | (1,738) | (14) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (1,563) | (1,861) | (19,072) | (12) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | (21) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 642 | 4,396 | 218,911 | 90,533 | 790 | 123 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 390.5 | 1,691.6 | 6,115.0 | 15,823.7 | 59.8 | 410.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1.64 | 2.60 | 35.80 | 5.72 | 13.22 | 0.30 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1.27 | 2.01 | 27.65 | 4.42 | 10.21 | 0.23 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | |