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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 2.4x - 2.7x | 2.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 4.5x - 4.9x | 4.7x |
| Fair Value | £0.29 - £0.32 | £0.30 |
| Upside | 34.7% - 47.3% | 41.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Serica Energy plc | SQZ | AIM:SQZ |
| Harbour Energy plc | HBR | LSE:HBR |
| Shell plc | SHEL | LSE:SHEL |
| BP p.l.c. | BP. | LSE:BP. |
| Diversified Energy Company PLC | DEC | LSE:DEC |
| Pharos Energy plc | PHAR | LSE:PHAR |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| SQZ | HBR | SHEL | BP. | DEC | PHAR | ||
| AIM:SQZ | LSE:HBR | LSE:SHEL | LSE:BP. | LSE:DEC | LSE:PHAR | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 78.0% | 16.1% | 7.3% | -7.8% | NM- | 11.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | 41.3% | 10.6% | -6.2% | NM- | 2.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -43.7% | 73.1% | -3.3% | -60.5% | -104.8% | 419.3% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 35.3% | 19.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.7% | -6.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 58.3% | 24.0% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 139.4% | -12.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 47.1% | 25.1% | 11.8% | 5.6% | -7.2% | 49.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 40.0% | 25.1% | 11.8% | 5.6% | -7.2% | 49.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.61x | 1.85x | 0.83x | 0.53x | 3.42x | 0.77x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.0x | 3.2x | 4.4x | 3.7x | 12.1x | 1.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 1.5x | 7.4x | 7.0x | 9.5x | -47.7x | 1.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -47.7x | 7.0x | 9.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -14.5x | 1.3x | 1.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 2.4x | 2.5x | 2.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 63 | 63 | 63 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 151 | 159 | 167 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 16 | 16 | 16 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 167 | 175 | 183 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 410.6 | 410.6 | 410.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.41 | 0.43 | 0.45 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/GBP | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.35 | 0.22 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 46.6% | 53.6% | 60.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SQZ | HBR | SHEL | BP. | DEC | PHAR | |
| Enterprise Value | 534 | 11,324 | 235,104 | 98,192 | 2,545 | 98 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 362 | 830 | 39,110 | 44,426 | 6 | 17 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 7 | 25,700 | 37,302 | 6 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (219) | (6,021) | (77,142) | (71,547) | (1,738) | (0) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (1,563) | (1,861) | (19,072) | (12) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | (21) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 677 | 4,577 | 220,911 | 89,280 | 807 | 114 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 390.5 | 1,682.4 | 6,044.2 | 15,823.7 | 59.8 | 410.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1.73 | 2.72 | 36.55 | 5.64 | 13.49 | 0.28 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1.34 | 2.10 | 28.25 | 4.36 | 10.43 | 0.22 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | GBP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | |