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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.0% - 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Fair Value | £2.21 - £2.53 | £2.34 |
| Upside | 50.1% - 71.4% | 58.6% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 19,913 | 22,427 | 21,503 | 20,797 | 17,486 | 15,936 | 15,936 | 15,936 | 15,936 | 15,936 | 15,936 | |
| % Growth | -24.7% | 12.6% | -4.1% | -3.3% | -15.9% | -8.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| EBITDA | 5,931 | 1,671 | 1,557 | 1,464 | 1,553 | 1,640 | 1,640 | 1,640 | 1,640 | 1,640 | 1,640 | |
| % of Revenue | 29.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.3% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (GBP in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 1,671 | 1,557 | 1,464 | 1,553 | 1,640 | 1,640 | 1,640 | 1,640 | 1,640 | 1,640 | 1,640 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (587) | (562) | (485) | (537) | (533) | (533) | (533) | (533) | (533) | (533) | (665) | |
| EBIT | 1,084 | 995 | 980 | 1,016 | 1,107 | 1,107 | 1,107 | 1,107 | 1,107 | 1,107 | 975 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (293) | (269) | (264) | (274) | (299) | (299) | (299) | (299) | (299) | (299) | (263) | |
| NOPAT | 4,115 | 791 | 726 | 715 | 742 | 808 | 808 | 808 | 808 | 808 | 808 | 711 |
| Capital Expenditures | (380) | (701) | (724) | (927) | (779) | (700) | (700) | (700) | (700) | (700) | (700) | (700) |
| NWC Investment | (51) | 20 | (7) | (5) | (26) | (12) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 294 | 587 | 562 | 485 | 537 | 533 | 533 | 533 | 533 | 533 | 533 | 665 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,978 | 696 | 557 | 267 | 474 | 629 | 641 | 641 | 641 | 641 | 641 | 677 |
| % Growth | -82% | -20% | -52% | 77% | 33% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | |