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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 7.4x - 9.4x | 8.4x |
Fair Value | RM1.40 - RM1.65 | RM1.52 |
Upside | 46.9% - 73.6% | 59.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(MYR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 150 | 184 | 205 | 283 | 340 | 383 | 411 | 426 | 434 | 443 | 452 |
% Growth | 8.5% | 22.6% | 11.6% | 38.2% | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 41 | 54 | 67 | 81 | 115 | 138 | 151 | 156 | 159 | 162 | 166 |
% of Revenue | 27.4% | 29.6% | 32.4% | 28.7% | 33.7% | 36.2% | 36.7% | 36.7% | 36.7% | 36.7% | 36.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(MYR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 54 | 67 | 81 | 115 | 138 | 151 | 156 | 159 | 162 | 166 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 9 | 13 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (7) | (8) | (11) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) | (17) | (18) | (18) | |
EBIT | 56 | 72 | 84 | 101 | 123 | 134 | 139 | 142 | 145 | 148 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (13) | (16) | (19) | (23) | (28) | (31) | (32) | (33) | (33) | (34) | |
NOPAT | 27 | 43 | 55 | 64 | 78 | 95 | 103 | 107 | 109 | 111 | 114 |
Capital Expenditures | (11) | (15) | (12) | (12) | (14) | (16) | (14) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) |
NWC Investment | (5) | (14) | (9) | (33) | (24) | (18) | (12) | (6) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
(+) D&A | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
Free Cash Flow | 17 | 21 | 42 | 31 | 53 | 76 | 94 | 103 | 108 | 111 | 113 |
% Growth | 28% | 98% | -27% | 72% | 43% | 23% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 2% |