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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.5% - 10.5% | 11.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.7x - 0.8x | 0.7x |
| Fair Value | ₨44.54 - ₨64.69 | ₨54.31 |
| Upside | -7.7% - 34.1% | 12.6% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (PKR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 |
| Revenue | 7,996 | 8,996 | 9,671 | 10,009 | 10,209 | 10,414 | 10,622 | 10,834 | 11,051 | 11,272 | 11,497 |
| % Growth | 15.5% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 1,056 | 1,509 | 1,719 | 1,779 | 1,815 | 1,851 | 1,888 | 1,926 | 1,965 | 2,004 | 2,044 |
| % of Revenue | 13.2% | 16.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 1,509 | 1,719 | 1,779 | 1,815 | 1,851 | 1,888 | 1,926 | 1,965 | 2,004 | 2,044 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (334) | (359) | (371) | (379) | (386) | (394) | (402) | (410) | (418) | (427) | |
| EBIT | 1,175 | 1,360 | 1,408 | 1,436 | 1,465 | 1,494 | 1,524 | 1,554 | 1,586 | 1,617 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (353) | (408) | (422) | (431) | (439) | (448) | (457) | (466) | (476) | (485) | |
| NOPAT | 523 | 823 | 952 | 986 | 1,005 | 1,025 | 1,046 | 1,067 | 1,088 | 1,110 | 1,132 |
| Capital Expenditures | (769) | (780) | (838) | (868) | (885) | (903) | (885) | (891) | (893) | (890) | (891) |
| NWC Investment | (456) | (426) | (288) | (144) | (85) | (87) | (89) | (91) | (92) | (94) | (96) |
| (+) D&A | 308 | 334 | 359 | 371 | 379 | 386 | 394 | 402 | 410 | 418 | 427 |
| Free Cash Flow | (393) | (49) | 185 | 345 | 414 | 422 | 466 | 487 | 513 | 544 | 571 |
| % Growth | NM | 86% | 20% | 2% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 5% | ||