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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.5% - 10.5% | 11.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.9x - 7.9x | 6.9x |
| Fair Value | ₨43.15 - ₨62.91 | ₨52.83 |
| Upside | 41.5% - 106.3% | 73.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (PKR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
| Revenue | 75,708 | 73,399 | 92,043 | 96,208 | 98,132 | 100,095 |
| % Growth | -6.8% | -3.0% | 25.4% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 5,945 | 13,607 | 11,350 | 11,801 | 12,037 | 12,278 |
| % of Revenue | 7.9% | 18.5% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 12.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (PKR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| EBITDA | 13,607 | 11,350 | 11,801 | 12,037 | 12,278 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 3,342 | 6,724 | 6,968 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (2,236) | (2,804) | (2,930) | (2,989) | (3,049) | |
| EBIT | 14,713 | 15,270 | 15,839 | 9,048 | 9,229 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (4,414) | (4,581) | (4,752) | (2,714) | (2,769) | |
| NOPAT | 2,689 | 10,299 | 10,689 | 11,087 | 6,334 | 6,460 |
| Capital Expenditures | (9,175) | (1,979) | (2,125) | (700) | (1,601) | (1,633) |
| NWC Investment | 325 | 135 | (1,090) | (244) | (113) | (115) |
| (+) D&A | 2,103 | 2,236 | 2,804 | 2,930 | 2,989 | 3,049 |
| Free Cash Flow | (4,057) | 10,691 | 10,277 | 13,074 | 7,609 | 7,761 |
| % Growth | NM | -4% | 27% | -42% | 2% | |