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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 2.1x - 2.4x | 2.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 0.8x - 0.9x | 0.9x |
| Fair Value | R110.37 - R114.09 | R112.23 |
| Upside | 16.1% - 20.0% | 18.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Exxaro Resources Limited | EXX | JSE:EXX |
| Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited | YZCA | BASE:YZCA |
| Whitehaven Coal Limited | WHC | ASX:WHC |
| New Hope Corporation Limited | OD8 | DB:OD8 |
| Peabody Energy Corporation | BTU | SNSE:BTU |
| Thungela Resources Limited | TGA | JSE:TGA |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| EXX | YZCA | WHC | OD8 | BTU | TGA | ||
| JSE:EXX | BASE:YZCA | ASX:WHC | DB:OD8 | SNSE:BTU | JSE:TGA | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 18.2% | 8.0% | 45.9% | 12.5% | 190.1% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | 0.0% | -2.3% | -42.6% | 49.3% | 0.4% | -25.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 1.4% | -24.6% | -45.1% | -29.8% | -67.3% | -48.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 23.5% | 20.1% | 30.0% | 38.9% | 4.5% | 25.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 26.8% | 25.4% | 25.3% | 59.4% | 22.2% | 21.7% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 18.2% | 19.7% | 9.1% | 39.2% | 8.7% | 10.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 19.0% | 19.5% | 9.1% | 36.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.60x | 1.61x | 1.09x | 1.51x | 0.44x | 0.08x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.3x | 5.3x | 2.3x | 3.0x | 3.2x | 0.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 3.1x | 8.3x | 11.9x | 4.2x | 8.9x | 1.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 3.1x | 8.3x | 11.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 0.5x | 1.4x | 2.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 2.1x | 2.2x | 2.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 2,113 | 2,113 | 2,113 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 4,510 | 4,747 | 4,985 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 9,650 | 9,650 | 9,650 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 14,160 | 14,397 | 14,635 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 128.6 | 128.6 | 128.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 110.13 | 111.97 | 113.82 | ||||
| FX Rate: ZAR/ZAR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 110.13 | 111.97 | 113.82 | 95.04 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 15.9% | 17.8% | 19.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | EXX | YZCA | WHC | OD8 | BTU | TGA | |
| Enterprise Value | 25,283 | 97,916 | 6,373 | 2,907 | 1,347 | 2,570 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 21,920 | 42,376 | 1,206 | 807 | 586 | 7,575 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 23,607 | 27,739 | 84 | 323 | 158 | 2,657 | |
| (-) Debt | (9,732) | (116,478) | (2,033) | (361) | (394) | (37) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (15,030) | (51,552) | 0 | 0 | (49) | (545) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 46,048 | 2 | 5,630 | 3,676 | 1,648 | 12,220 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 238.9 | 45,092.5 | 836.5 | 842.3 | 64.6 | 128.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 192.72 | 0.00 | 6.73 | 4.36 | 25.49 | 95.04 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 1.79 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 192.72 | 0.01 | 6.73 | 2.44 | 25.49 | 95.04 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | ARS | AUD | EUR | USD | ZAR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 1.79 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |