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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 12.8x - 14.8x | 13.8x |
| Fair Value | R6.82 - R8.30 | R7.53 |
| Upside | -1.6% - 19.8% | 8.7% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (ZAR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Sep-24 | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 |
| Revenue | 6,332 | 6,332 | 6,332 | 6,332 | 6,332 | 6,332 | 6,332 | 6,332 | 6,332 | 6,332 | 6,332 |
| % Growth | -8.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 319 | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 |
| % of Revenue | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (ZAR in millions) | Sep-25 | Sep-26 | Sep-27 | Sep-28 | Sep-29 | Sep-30 | Sep-31 | Sep-32 | Sep-33 | Sep-34 | |
| EBITDA | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 | 194 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | (82) | |
| EBIT | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | 112 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | (31) | |
| NOPAT | 169 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 | 80 |
| Capital Expenditures | (153) | (138) | (143) | (145) | (145) | (145) | (145) | (145) | (145) | (145) | (145) |
| NWC Investment | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 84 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 |
| Free Cash Flow | 178 | 24 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| % Growth | -86% | -21% | -8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |