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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7.9x - 8.7x | 8.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.3x - 8.1x | 7.7x |
| Fair Value | R41.67 - R50.18 | R45.93 |
| Upside | 5.6% - 27.2% | 16.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Clicks Group Limited | CLS | JSE:CLS |
| Shoprite Holdings Ltd | SHP | JSE:SHP |
| Bid Corporation Limited | BID | JSE:BID |
| Dis-Chem Pharmacies Limited | DCP | JSE:DCP |
| The SPAR Group Ltd | SPP | JSE:SPP |
| KAL Group Limited | KAL | JSE:KAL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| CLS | SHP | BID | DCP | SPP | KAL | ||
| JSE:CLS | JSE:SHP | JSE:BID | JSE:DCP | JSE:SPP | JSE:KAL | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 10.8% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 6.3% | 1.3% | 13.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 11.1% | 7.8% | 31.3% | 11.1% | -2.1% | 13.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 12.8% | 14.5% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 6.7% | -22.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 10.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 10.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.04x | 0.79x | 0.76x | 0.92x | 0.29x | 0.27x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 18.9x | 12.1x | 12.2x | 14.8x | 11.4x | 7.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 21.7x | 15.4x | 14.3x | 18.0x | 15.0x | 8.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.4x | 12.2x | 18.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.0x | 7.9x | 9.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.9x | 8.3x | 8.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 729 | 729 | 729 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,755 | 6,058 | 6,361 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (2,767) | (2,767) | (2,767) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,988 | 3,291 | 3,594 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 70.6 | 70.6 | 70.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 42.32 | 46.61 | 50.90 | ||||
| FX Rate: ZAR/ZAR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 42.32 | 46.61 | 50.90 | 39.46 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 7.2% | 18.1% | 29.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | CLS | SHP | BID | DCP | SPP | KAL | |
| Enterprise Value | 95,391 | 198,223 | 173,861 | 34,829 | 44,230 | 5,554 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,724 | 11,482 | 7,553 | 824 | 1,622 | 190 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 201 | 3,102 | 1,029 | 375 | 178 | 77 | |
| (-) Debt | (4,097) | (55,194) | (23,013) | (5,374) | (24,300) | (2,826) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 90 | (400) | (4) | 0 | (209) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 93,218 | 157,703 | 159,030 | 30,650 | 21,731 | 2,786 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 238.1 | 540.4 | 335.2 | 857.3 | 192.5 | 70.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 391.57 | 291.81 | 474.44 | 35.75 | 112.86 | 39.46 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 391.57 | 291.81 | 474.44 | 35.75 | 112.86 | 39.46 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | ZAR | ZAR | ZAR | ZAR | ZAR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |