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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 4.1x - 4.5x | 4.3x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 4.6x - 5.1x | 4.8x |
| Fair Value | R230.20 - R245.29 | R237.75 |
| Upside | 19.4% - 27.3% | 23.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Thungela Resources Limited | TGA | JSE:TGA |
| Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited | YZCA | BASE:YZCA |
| Yancoal Australia Ltd | YAL | ASX:YAL |
| New Hope Corporation Limited | OD8 | DB:OD8 |
| PT Bumi Resources Tbk | PBMR.F | OTCPK:PBMR.F |
| Exxaro Resources Limited | EXX | JSE:EXX |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| TGA | YZCA | YAL | OD8 | PBMR.F | EXX | ||
| JSE:TGA | BASE:YZCA | ASX:YAL | DB:OD8 | OTCPK:PBMR.F | JSE:EXX | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 8.0% | 10.1% | 12.5% | NM- | 18.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -25.7% | -2.3% | 7.4% | 49.3% | -23.0% | 0.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -48.6% | -24.6% | -27.8% | -29.8% | 52511.0% | 1.4% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 25.7% | 20.1% | 24.9% | 38.9% | 3.3% | 23.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 21.7% | 25.4% | 33.5% | 59.4% | 3.1% | 26.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 10.1% | 19.7% | 22.6% | 39.2% | 4.3% | 18.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.3% | 19.5% | 20.0% | 36.3% | 7.0% | 19.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.08x | 1.61x | 0.80x | 1.51x | 2.14x | 0.60x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 0.6x | 5.3x | 2.6x | 3.0x | 25.2x | 2.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 1.2x | 8.3x | 4.0x | 4.2x | 30.7x | 3.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 1.2x | 4.2x | 30.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 2.5x | 3.2x | 8.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 4.1x | 4.3x | 4.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 8,027 | 8,027 | 8,027 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 32,708 | 34,429 | 36,151 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 20,765 | 20,765 | 20,765 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 53,473 | 55,194 | 56,916 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 238.9 | 238.9 | 238.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 223.79 | 231.00 | 238.20 | ||||
| FX Rate: ZAR/ZAR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 223.79 | 231.00 | 238.20 | 192.72 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 16.1% | 19.9% | 23.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TGA | YZCA | YAL | OD8 | PBMR.F | EXX | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,570 | 97,916 | 5,129 | 2,907 | 2,491 | 25,283 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 7,575 | 42,376 | 1,795 | 807 | 75 | 21,920 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 2,657 | 27,739 | 442 | 323 | 902 | 23,607 | |
| (-) Debt | (37) | (116,478) | (128) | (361) | (271) | (9,732) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (545) | (51,552) | (2) | 0 | (1,241) | (15,030) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 12,220 | 2 | 7,236 | 3,676 | 1,955 | 46,048 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 128.6 | 45,092.5 | 1,320.4 | 842.3 | 434,484.0 | 238.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 95.04 | 0.00 | 5.48 | 4.36 | 0.00 | 192.72 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 1.79 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 95.04 | 0.01 | 5.48 | 2.44 | 0.00 | 192.72 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | ARS | AUD | EUR | USD | ZAR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 1.79 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |