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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 2.7x - 4.7x | 3.7x |
Fair Value | R216.89 - R287 | R251.34 |
Upside | 59.2% - 110.7% | 84.5% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(ZAR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Jun-24 | Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 |
Revenue | 11,192 | 11,390 | 12,018 | 12,670 | 13,113 | 13,376 |
% Growth | 5.1% | 1.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 342 | 752 | 825 | 878 | 909 | 927 |
% of Revenue | 3.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(ZAR in millions) | Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | |
EBITDA | 752 | 825 | 878 | 909 | 927 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (417) | (422) | (426) | (441) | (450) | |
EBIT | 335 | 403 | 452 | 468 | 477 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (117) | (141) | (158) | (164) | (167) | |
NOPAT | 122 | 218 | 262 | 294 | 304 | 310 |
Capital Expenditures | (147) | (143) | (147) | (152) | (157) | (160) |
NWC Investment | 31 | 11 | 36 | 38 | 26 | 15 |
(+) D&A | 155 | 417 | 422 | 426 | 441 | 450 |
Free Cash Flow | 161 | 503 | 573 | 605 | 613 | 615 |
% Growth | 212% | 14% | 6% | 1% | 0% |