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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 18.8% - 17.8% | 18.3% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 0.9x - 2.9x | 1.9x |
| Fair Value | R1.44 - R4.03 | R2.69 |
| Upside | 4.6% - 192.0% | 94.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (ZAR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 38,596 | 47,823 | 52,478 | 47,553 | 52,990 | 56,964 | 58,958 | 60,137 | 61,340 | 62,567 | 63,818 |
| % Growth | -7.3% | 23.9% | 9.7% | -9.4% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | -2,947 | 2,883 | 3,564 | 6,097 | 4,604 | 5,519 | 5,712 | 5,826 | 5,943 | 6,062 | 6,183 |
| % of Revenue | -7.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 12.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (ZAR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 2,883 | 3,564 | 6,097 | 4,604 | 5,519 | 5,712 | 5,826 | 5,943 | 6,062 | 6,183 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (750) | (765) | (970) | (1,043) | (1,121) | (1,160) | (1,184) | (1,207) | (1,231) | (1,256) | |
| EBIT | 2,133 | 2,799 | 5,127 | 3,561 | 4,398 | 4,552 | 4,643 | 4,736 | 4,830 | 4,927 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (320) | (420) | (769) | (534) | (660) | (683) | (696) | (710) | (725) | (739) | |
| NOPAT | (3,200) | 1,813 | 2,379 | 4,358 | 3,027 | 3,738 | 3,869 | 3,946 | 4,025 | 4,106 | 4,188 |
| Capital Expenditures | (938) | (1,700) | (2,000) | (2,785) | (2,900) | (3,118) | (2,934) | (2,984) | (3,012) | (2,977) | (2,991) |
| NWC Investment | 244 | (739) | (373) | 395 | (436) | (318) | (160) | (94) | (96) | (98) | (100) |
| (+) D&A | 818 | 750 | 765 | 970 | 1,043 | 1,121 | 1,160 | 1,184 | 1,207 | 1,231 | 1,256 |
| Free Cash Flow | (3,077) | 124 | 771 | 2,938 | 734 | 1,423 | 1,935 | 2,052 | 2,124 | 2,262 | 2,353 |
| % Growth | NM | 524% | 281% | -75% | 94% | 36% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 4% | |