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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 59.4x - 65.7x | 62.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 57.7x - 63.8x | 60.7x |
| Fair Value | Rp3.21 - Rp9.83 | Rp6.52 |
| Upside | -75.3% - -24.4% | -49.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PT Betonjaya Manunggal Tbk | BTON | IDX:BTON |
| PT Alakasa Industrindo Tbk | ALKA | IDX:ALKA |
| PT Adhi Kartiko Pratama Tbk | NICE | IDX:NICE |
| PT Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk | BAJA | IDX:BAJA |
| PT Gunawan Dianjaya Steel Tbk | GDST | IDX:GDST |
| PT Kapuas Prima Coal Tbk | ZINC | IDX:ZINC |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| BTON | ALKA | NICE | BAJA | GDST | ZINC | ||
| IDX:BTON | IDX:ALKA | IDX:NICE | IDX:BAJA | IDX:GDST | IDX:ZINC | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -59.8% | NM- | NM- | -8.0% | 25.2% | -39.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -81.7% | NM- | 3.0% | -55.7% | NM- | -47.8% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -131.7% | -128.9% | 101.8% | -42.7% | -66.1% | -36.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.0% | 0.8% | 10.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 17.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.8% | 2.3% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 13.0% | 8.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 0.1% | -10.0% | 10.6% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 11.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -1.3% | -9.1% | 17.7% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 11.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | -0.13x | 1.00x | 2.86x | 0.81x | 0.81x | 7.78x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.4x | -11.0x | 16.1x | 30.4x | 18.6x | 68.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 6.6x | -13.8x | 17.8x | -69.7x | 21.5x | -132.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -11.0x | 16.1x | 30.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 17.0x | 38.2x | 68.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 59.4x | 62.5x | 65.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 26,702 | 26,702 | 26,702 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,586,453 | 1,669,950 | 1,753,448 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,505,325) | (1,505,325) | (1,505,325) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 81,127 | 164,625 | 248,123 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 25,250.0 | 25,250.0 | 25,250.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 3.21 | 6.52 | 9.83 | ||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.21 | 6.52 | 9.83 | 13.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -75.3% | -49.8% | -24.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | BTON | ALKA | NICE | BAJA | GDST | ZINC | |
| Enterprise Value | (54,699) | 134,460 | 2,138,772 | 631,707 | 2,020,996 | 1,833,575 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 317,219 | 23,110 | 29,156 | 32,943 | 3,146 | 5,210 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 38,440 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 500 | |
| (-) Debt | 0 | (60) | (112,204) | (464,851) | (1,155,347) | (1,518,255) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (134) | (1) | 0 | 0 | 7,220 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 300,960 | 157,376 | 2,055,723 | 199,800 | 868,795 | 328,250 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 720.0 | 507.7 | 6,082.0 | 1,800.0 | 9,242.5 | 25,250.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 418.00 | 310.00 | 338.00 | 111.00 | 94.00 | 13.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 418.00 | 310.00 | 338.00 | 111.00 | 94.00 | 13.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |