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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 5.5% - 6.5% | 6.0% |
| Fair Value | Rp75.92 - Rp268.49 | Rp124.21 |
| Upside | -72.9% - -4.1% | -55.6% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (IDR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 1,706,381 | 1,834,360 | 1,898,563 | 1,936,534 | 1,975,265 | 2,014,770 | 2,055,065 | 2,096,167 | 2,138,090 | 2,180,852 | 2,224,469 | |
| % Growth | 11.4% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 314,505 | 345,598 | 357,694 | 364,848 | 372,145 | 379,588 | 387,179 | 394,923 | 402,821 | 410,878 | 419,095 | |
| % of Revenue | 18.4% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (IDR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 345,598 | 357,694 | 364,848 | 372,145 | 379,588 | 387,179 | 394,923 | 402,821 | 410,878 | 419,095 | 419,095 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (247,010) | (255,656) | (260,769) | (265,984) | (271,304) | (276,730) | (282,265) | (287,910) | (293,668) | (299,541) | (263,261) | |
| EBIT | 98,588 | 102,038 | 104,079 | 106,161 | 108,284 | 110,449 | 112,658 | 114,912 | 117,210 | 119,554 | 155,835 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (29,576) | (30,611) | (31,224) | (31,848) | (32,485) | (33,135) | (33,798) | (34,473) | (35,163) | (35,866) | (46,750) | |
| NOPAT | 71,549 | 69,011 | 71,427 | 72,855 | 74,312 | 75,799 | 77,315 | 78,861 | 80,438 | 82,047 | 83,688 | 109,084 |
| Capital Expenditures | (263,913) | (72,700) | (264,511) | (269,802) | (275,198) | (280,702) | (275,234) | (277,044) | (277,660) | (276,646) | (277,117) | (277,117) |
| NWC Investment | (8,760) | (6,417) | (3,219) | (1,904) | (1,942) | (1,981) | (2,020) | (2,061) | (2,102) | (2,144) | (2,187) | (6,692) |
| (+) D&A | 212,293 | 247,010 | 255,656 | 260,769 | 265,984 | 271,304 | 276,730 | 282,265 | 287,910 | 293,668 | 299,541 | 263,261 |
| Free Cash Flow | 11,169 | 236,905 | 59,352 | 61,919 | 63,157 | 64,420 | 76,791 | 82,020 | 88,586 | 96,925 | 103,926 | 88,537 |
| % Growth | 2021% | -75% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 19% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 7% | -15% | |