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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 22.7x - 25.1x | 23.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 12.6x - 14.0x | 13.3x |
| Fair Value | Rp361.47 - Rp417.52 | Rp389.49 |
| Upside | 20.5% - 39.2% | 29.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk | KRAS | IDX:KRAS |
| PT Vale Indonesia Tbk | INCO | IDX:INCO |
| PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk | MDKA | IDX:MDKA |
| PT J Resources Asia Pasifik Tbk | PSAB | IDX:PSAB |
| PT Archi Indonesia Tbk | ARCI | IDX:ARCI |
| PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. | MBMA | IDX:MBMA |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| KRAS | INCO | MDKA | PSAB | ARCI | MBMA | ||
| IDX:KRAS | IDX:INCO | IDX:MDKA | IDX:PSAB | IDX:ARCI | IDX:MBMA | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -24.5% | -0.1% | 8.8% | -3.2% | -18.3% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | -58.0% | -16.5% | 17.8% | -15.7% | -30.4% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.7% | -53.7% | 42.1% | 158.3% | 8.2% | 60.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 2.0% | 35.6% | 35.3% | 46.3% | 42.0% | 7.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.1% | 38.5% | 26.2% | 35.9% | 36.0% | 10.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 0.9% | 23.1% | 14.1% | 52.7% | 32.7% | 7.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -2.4% | 23.1% | 13.1% | 50.1% | 25.0% | 7.9% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.20x | 0.83x | 2.26x | 3.17x | 2.53x | 1.64x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -49.7x | 3.6x | 17.2x | 6.3x | 10.1x | 20.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -27.3x | 13.1x | 51.4x | 10.4x | 15.2x | 46.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -49.7x | 6.3x | 17.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 53.5x | 53.5x | 53.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 22.7x | 23.9x | 25.1x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 144 | 144 | 144 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,269 | 3,441 | 3,613 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,116) | (1,116) | (1,116) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,153 | 2,325 | 2,497 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 107,995.4 | 107,995.4 | 107,995.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/IDR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 330.12 | 356.50 | 382.87 | 300.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 10.0% | 18.8% | 27.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | KRAS | INCO | MDKA | PSAB | ARCI | MBMA | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,129 | 765 | 5,227 | 818 | 778 | 3,072 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 71 | 675 | 459 | 22 | 9 | 213 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 494 | 13 | 52 | 0 | 6 | 52 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,588) | (8) | (1,645) | (332) | (409) | (592) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 33 | 0 | (1,985) | (101) | (0) | (788) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 139 | 1,445 | 2,108 | 406 | 384 | 1,956 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 19,346.4 | 10,539.8 | 24,411.1 | 26,460.0 | 24,835.0 | 107,995.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 119.00 | 2,270.00 | 1,430.00 | 254.00 | 256.00 | 300.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |