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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 6.5x - 8.5x | 7.5x |
Fair Value | Rp874.63 - Rp1,052 | Rp961.77 |
Upside | 63.5% - 96.7% | 79.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(IDR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 53,604,073 | 53,497,631 | 57,565,507 | 58,750,156 | 59,925,159 | 61,123,662 |
% Growth | 0.9% | -0.2% | 7.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 8,669,243 | 9,005,000 | 10,658,594 | 11,296,047 | 11,521,968 | 11,752,407 |
% of Revenue | 16.2% | 16.8% | 18.5% | 19.2% | 19.2% | 19.2% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(IDR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 9,005,000 | 10,658,594 | 11,296,047 | 11,521,968 | 11,752,407 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12,752,368 | 15,093,095 | |
D&A | (1,008,282) | (1,046,282) | (988,565) | (1,008,336) | (1,028,503) | |
EBIT | 7,996,718 | 9,612,312 | 10,307,482 | 23,266,000 | 25,817,000 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (1,839,245) | (2,210,832) | (2,370,721) | (5,351,180) | (5,937,910) | |
NOPAT | 5,926,856 | 6,157,473 | 7,401,480 | 7,936,761 | 17,914,820 | 19,879,090 |
Capital Expenditures | (1,826,791) | (962,000) | (1,288,000) | (1,095,000) | (687,000) | (772,000) |
NWC Investment | (94,331) | 20,174 | (770,988) | (224,528) | (222,699) | (227,153) |
(+) D&A | 972,027 | 1,008,282 | 1,046,282 | 988,565 | 1,008,336 | 1,028,503 |
Free Cash Flow | 4,977,761 | 6,223,929 | 6,388,774 | 7,605,798 | 18,013,457 | 19,908,439 |
% Growth | 25% | 3% | 19% | 137% | 11% |