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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3.8x - 4.2x | 4.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.9x - 5.5x | 5.2x |
| Fair Value | Rp85.58 - Rp99.86 | Rp92.72 |
| Upside | -6.0% - 9.7% | 1.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk | ISSP | IDX:ISSP |
| PT PAM Mineral Tbk | NICL | IDX:NICL |
| Central PetroVietnam Fertilizer And Chemicals Joint Stock Company | PCE | HNX:PCE |
| South-East PetroVietnam Fertilizer and Chemicals Joint Stock Company | PSE | HNX:PSE |
| PT Waskita Beton Precast Tbk | WSBP | IDX:WSBP |
| PT Darma Henwa Tbk | DEWA | IDX:DEWA |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ISSP | NICL | PCE | PSE | WSBP | DEWA | ||
| IDX:ISSP | IDX:NICL | HNX:PCE | HNX:PSE | IDX:WSBP | IDX:DEWA | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 15.2% | NM- | NM- | 7.7% | NM- | 5.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 6.0% | 84.8% | NM- | -25.6% | NM- | -8.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.7% | 633.7% | -34.5% | 40.3% | 79.1% | -21.5% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.6% | 17.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | -48.7% | 12.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 14.0% | 5.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | -21.5% | 12.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 15.9% | 29.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | -23.1% | 11.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 15.9% | 29.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | -5.0% | 11.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.61x | 2.07x | 0.01x | 0.03x | 1.81x | 0.57x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.9x | 7.0x | 1.9x | 4.2x | -36.1x | 4.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 4.7x | 7.2x | 2.3x | 4.4x | -8.0x | 24.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -36.1x | 3.9x | 7.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.0x | 1.8x | 4.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | 4.0x | 4.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 706,210 | 706,210 | 706,210 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,680,410 | 2,821,485 | 2,962,559 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,093,108) | (1,093,108) | (1,093,108) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,587,302 | 1,728,377 | 1,869,451 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 21,853.7 | 21,853.7 | 21,853.7 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 72.63 | 79.09 | 85.54 | ||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 72.63 | 79.09 | 85.54 | 91.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -20.2% | -13.1% | -6.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ISSP | NICL | PCE | PSE | WSBP | DEWA | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,742,263 | 2,989,265 | 21,503 | 106,372 | 3,229,587 | 3,081,798 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 503,649 | 227,952 | 164,497 | 18,628 | 63,888 | 346,530 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 39,579 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,113,437 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,519,142) | (3,355) | 0 | 0 | (2,601,359) | (2,555,429) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (14) | (1,897) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,354 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,766,335 | 3,211,965 | 186,000 | 125,000 | 692,117 | 1,988,690 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 7,065.3 | 10,635.6 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 53,239.8 | 21,853.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 250.00 | 302.00 | 18,600.00 | 10,000.00 | 13.00 | 91.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 250.00 | 302.00 | 18,600.00 | 10,000.00 | 13.00 | 91.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | VND | VND | IDR | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |