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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 1.3x - 1.5x | 1.4x |
| Fair Value | Rp6,410 - Rp7,359 | Rp6,869 |
| Upside | 46.0% - 67.6% | 56.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (IDR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 67,477,992 | 70,567,000 | 75,631,759 | 81,202,000 | 86,199,000 | 93,095,000 | 96,353,325 | 98,280,392 | 100,245,999 | 102,250,919 | 104,295,938 |
| % Growth | 9.5% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 7,307,311 | 7,458,000 | 7,703,000 | 9,332,500 | 10,768,792 | 12,561,256 | 13,000,900 | 13,260,918 | 13,526,136 | 13,796,659 | 14,072,592 |
| % of Revenue | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 7,458,000 | 7,703,000 | 9,332,500 | 10,768,792 | 12,561,256 | 13,000,900 | 13,260,918 | 13,526,136 | 13,796,659 | 14,072,592 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (1,371,500) | (1,191,000) | (1,401,500) | (2,378,792) | (4,116,256) | (4,260,325) | (4,345,531) | (4,432,442) | (4,521,091) | (4,611,512) | |
| EBIT | 6,086,500 | 6,512,000 | 7,931,000 | 8,390,000 | 8,445,000 | 8,740,575 | 8,915,387 | 9,093,694 | 9,275,568 | 9,461,079 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,339,030) | (1,432,640) | (1,744,820) | (1,845,800) | (1,857,900) | (1,922,927) | (1,961,385) | (2,000,613) | (2,040,625) | (2,081,437) | |
| NOPAT | 4,610,888 | 4,747,470 | 5,079,360 | 6,186,180 | 6,544,200 | 6,587,100 | 6,817,649 | 6,954,001 | 7,093,081 | 7,234,943 | 7,379,642 |
| Capital Expenditures | (774,542) | (1,008,000) | (1,220,000) | (992,000) | (3,015,000) | (3,165,000) | (2,390,667) | (2,438,480) | (2,487,250) | (2,438,799) | (2,454,843) |
| NWC Investment | (1,295,561) | (682,685) | (1,119,336) | (1,231,050) | (1,104,361) | (1,524,049) | (720,105) | (425,891) | (434,409) | (443,097) | (451,959) |
| (+) D&A | 1,395,916 | 1,371,500 | 1,191,000 | 1,401,500 | 2,378,792 | 4,116,256 | 4,260,325 | 4,345,531 | 4,432,442 | 4,521,091 | 4,611,512 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,936,701 | 4,428,285 | 3,931,024 | 5,364,630 | 4,803,632 | 6,014,307 | 7,967,201 | 8,435,162 | 8,603,865 | 8,874,138 | 9,084,353 |
| % Growth | -11% | 36% | -10% | 25% | 32% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 2% | ||