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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 31.3x - 33.3x | 32.3x |
Fair Value | Rp4,009 - Rp4,235 | Rp4,120 |
Upside | 0.2% - 5.9% | 3.0% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(IDR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 2,386,969 | 2,386,969 | 2,386,969 | 2,386,969 | 2,386,969 | 2,386,969 |
% Growth | -27.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 529,964 | 368,602 | 368,602 | 368,602 | 368,602 | 368,602 |
% of Revenue | 22.2% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(IDR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 368,602 | 368,602 | 368,602 | 368,602 | 368,602 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (76,731) | (76,731) | (76,731) | (76,731) | (76,731) | |
EBIT | 291,870 | 291,870 | 291,870 | 291,870 | 291,870 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (35,024) | (35,024) | (35,024) | (35,024) | (35,024) | |
NOPAT | 383,101 | 256,846 | 256,846 | 256,846 | 256,846 | 256,846 |
Capital Expenditures | (19,343) | (52,247) | (52,247) | (52,247) | (52,247) | (52,247) |
NWC Investment | 218,848 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 94,622 | 76,731 | 76,731 | 76,731 | 76,731 | 76,731 |
Free Cash Flow | 677,228 | 281,330 | 281,330 | 281,330 | 281,330 | 281,330 |
% Growth | -58% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |