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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.3% - 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 12.8x - 14.8x | 13.8x |
| Fair Value | Rp2,837 - Rp3,335 | Rp3,078 |
| Upside | 16.8% - 37.3% | 26.7% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (IDR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 118,227,031 | 130,285,683 | 143,712,993 | 157,202,000 | 162,704,070 | 165,958,151 | 169,277,314 | 172,662,861 | 176,116,118 | 179,638,440 | 183,231,209 |
| % Growth | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 5,837,976 | 9,384,077 | 9,039,000 | 10,125,360 | 10,479,747 | 10,689,342 | 10,903,129 | 11,121,192 | 11,343,616 | 11,570,488 | 11,801,898 |
| % of Revenue | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (IDR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 9,384,077 | 9,039,000 | 10,125,360 | 10,479,747 | 10,689,342 | 10,903,129 | 11,121,192 | 11,343,616 | 11,570,488 | 11,801,898 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (4,384,077) | (3,756,579) | (5,289,478) | (4,830,747) | (4,765,342) | (4,860,649) | (4,957,862) | (5,057,019) | (5,158,160) | (5,261,323) | |
| EBIT | 5,000,000 | 5,282,421 | 4,835,882 | 5,649,000 | 5,924,000 | 6,042,480 | 6,163,330 | 6,286,596 | 6,412,328 | 6,540,575 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,000,000) | (1,056,484) | (967,176) | (1,129,800) | (1,184,800) | (1,208,496) | (1,232,666) | (1,257,319) | (1,282,466) | (1,308,115) | |
| NOPAT | 3,227,951 | 4,000,000 | 4,225,937 | 3,868,706 | 4,519,200 | 4,739,200 | 4,833,984 | 4,930,664 | 5,029,277 | 5,129,862 | 5,232,460 |
| Capital Expenditures | (2,786,250) | (5,148,000) | (5,532,317) | (6,318,000) | (2,002,000) | (1,940,000) | (1,978,800) | (1,973,600) | (1,964,133) | (1,972,178) | (1,969,970) |
| NWC Investment | 295,536 | 315,871 | 351,723 | 353,339 | 144,124 | 85,239 | 86,944 | 88,683 | 90,457 | 92,266 | 94,111 |
| (+) D&A | 1,803,037 | 4,384,077 | 3,756,579 | 5,289,478 | 4,830,747 | 4,765,342 | 4,860,649 | 4,957,862 | 5,057,019 | 5,158,160 | 5,261,323 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,540,274 | 3,551,948 | 2,801,922 | 3,193,522 | 7,492,072 | 7,649,782 | 7,802,777 | 8,003,609 | 8,212,620 | 8,408,110 | 8,617,923 |
| % Growth | 40% | -21% | 14% | 135% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | |