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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.3x - 10.2x | 9.7x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 8.4x - 9.3x | 8.8x |
| Fair Value | ₺13.35 - ₺14.58 | ₺13.96 |
| Upside | -16.9% - -9.3% | -13.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Ayes Celik Hasir Ve Cit Sanayi A.S. | AYES | IBSE:AYES |
| Dofer Yapi Malzemeleri Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. | DOFER | IBSE:DOFER |
| Erbosan Erciyas Boru Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. | ERBOS | IBSE:ERBOS |
| Erciyas Çelik Boru Sanayi A.S. | ERCB | IBSE:ERCB |
| Borusan Birlesik Boru Fabrikalari Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. | BRSAN | IBSE:BRSAN |
| Çemtas Çelik Makina Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. | CEMTS | IBSE:CEMTS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AYES | DOFER | ERBOS | ERCB | BRSAN | CEMTS | ||
| IBSE:AYES | IBSE:DOFER | IBSE:ERBOS | IBSE:ERCB | IBSE:BRSAN | IBSE:CEMTS | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 48.1% | NM- | 53.0% | 48.1% | 49.6% | 62.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -28.2% | NM- | 33.8% | 52.0% | 76.2% | 18.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -91.6% | -55.0% | -39.2% | 8.1% | -54.2% | -42.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 4.8% | 2.6% | 17.3% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 17.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.4% | 4.3% | 18.6% | 7.0% | 15.6% | 15.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 0.5% | 1.3% | 13.7% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 11.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.5% | 1.3% | 13.7% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 11.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.21x | 0.39x | 0.83x | 1.36x | 1.02x | 1.30x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 44.8x | 30.4x | 6.0x | 15.8x | 18.6x | 11.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -330.7x | 72.8x | 7.0x | 26.2x | 32.2x | 19.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.0x | 18.6x | 44.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.3x | 6.6x | 21.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.3x | 9.7x | 10.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 635 | 635 | 635 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,871 | 6,180 | 6,489 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 817 | 817 | 817 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 6,688 | 6,997 | 7,306 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 500.0 | 500.0 | 500.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 13.38 | 13.99 | 14.61 | ||||
| FX Rate: TRY/TRY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 13.38 | 13.99 | 14.61 | 16.07 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -16.8% | -12.9% | -9.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AYES | DOFER | ERBOS | ERCB | BRSAN | CEMTS | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,592 | 1,461 | 3,768 | 9,891 | 56,130 | 7,218 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 466 | 238 | 549 | 430 | 2,356 | 1,205 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3,573 | 265 | |
| (-) Debt | (784) | (31) | (1,173) | (4,251) | (12,258) | (653) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | (4) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,275 | 1,668 | 3,150 | 6,101 | 49,797 | 8,035 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 150.0 | 55.8 | 20.0 | 77.8 | 141.8 | 500.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 8.50 | 29.92 | 157.50 | 78.45 | 351.25 | 16.07 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 8.50 | 29.92 | 157.50 | 78.45 | 351.25 | 16.07 | |
| Trading Currency | TRY | TRY | TRY | TRY | TRY | TRY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |