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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 4.2x - 4.7x | 4.4x |
Fair Value | ₺0.90 - ₺1.24 | ₺1.06 |
Upside | -47.9% - -28.1% | -38.4% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(TRY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 6,104 | 6,104 | 6,104 | 6,104 | 6,104 | 6,104 | 6,104 | 6,104 | 6,104 | 6,104 | 6,104 |
% Growth | -27.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 1,900 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 |
% of Revenue | 31.1% | 31.1% | 31.1% | 31.1% | 31.1% | 31.1% | 31.1% | 31.1% | 31.1% | 31.1% | 31.1% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | 1,901 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (998) | (998) | (998) | (998) | (998) | (998) | (998) | (998) | (998) | (998) | |
EBIT | 903 | 903 | 903 | 903 | 903 | 903 | 903 | 903 | 903 | 903 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (163) | (163) | (163) | (163) | (163) | (163) | (163) | (163) | (163) | (163) | |
NOPAT | 351 | 740 | 740 | 740 | 740 | 740 | 740 | 740 | 740 | 740 | 740 |
Capital Expenditures | (1,513) | (3,354) | (4,010) | (2,959) | (3,441) | (3,470) | (998) | (998) | (998) | (998) | (998) |
NWC Investment | 950 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 1,472 | 998 | 998 | 998 | 998 | 998 | 998 | 998 | 998 | 998 | 998 |
Free Cash Flow | 1,261 | (1,615) | (2,272) | (1,220) | (1,703) | (1,732) | 740 | 740 | 740 | 740 | 740 |
% Growth | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |