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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 1.5% - 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Fair Value | ₫26,912 - ₫36,006 | ₫30,812 |
| Upside | 37.0% - 83.2% | 56.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (VND in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| Revenue | 465,961 | 482,270 | 491,915 | 501,754 | 511,789 | 522,025 | |
| % Growth | 8.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 74,738 | 69,633 | 71,025 | 72,446 | 73,895 | 75,372 | |
| % of Revenue | 16.0% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 14.4% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (VND in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 69,633 | 71,025 | 72,446 | 73,895 | 75,372 | 75,372 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (13,633) | (13,906) | (14,184) | (14,468) | (14,757) | (22,380) | |
| EBIT | 55,999 | 57,119 | 58,262 | 59,427 | 60,616 | 52,992 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (7,840) | (7,997) | (8,157) | (8,320) | (8,486) | (7,419) | |
| NOPAT | 51,952 | 48,160 | 49,123 | 50,105 | 51,107 | 52,129 | 45,573 |
| Capital Expenditures | (24,627) | (21,437) | (21,866) | (22,643) | (23,096) | (23,558) | (23,558) |
| NWC Investment | (15,033) | (7,113) | (4,207) | (4,291) | (4,377) | (4,464) | (4,554) |
| (+) D&A | 14,329 | 13,633 | 13,906 | 14,184 | 14,468 | 14,757 | 22,380 |
| Free Cash Flow | 26,621 | 33,242 | 36,956 | 37,355 | 38,102 | 38,864 | 39,842 |
| % Growth | 25% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | |