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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.7x - 6.3x | 6.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.9x - 5.5x | 5.2x |
| Fair Value | ₫11,320 - ₫14,350 | ₫12,835 |
| Upside | -18.0% - 4.0% | -7.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Tan Dai Hung Plastic Joint Stock Company | TPC | HOSE:TPC |
| Dam Phu My Packaging Joint Stock Company | PMP | HNX:PMP |
| PetroVietnam Packaging Joint Stock Company | PBP | HNX:PBP |
| Haiphong Packing VICEM Joint Stock Company | BXH | HNX:BXH |
| SADICO Can Tho Joint Stock Corporation | SDG | HNX:SDG |
| But Son Cement Packing Joint Stock Company | BBS | HNX:BBS |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| TPC | PMP | PBP | BXH | SDG | BBS | ||
| HOSE:TPC | HNX:PMP | HNX:PBP | HNX:BXH | HNX:SDG | HNX:BBS | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | -4.0% | NM- | NM- | -8.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | -3.8% | NM- | NM- | -18.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | NM | NM | 27.8% | NM | NM | -35.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 2.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 10.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -5.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 5.8% | 13.0% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 0.5% | -0.7% | 8.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 4.3% | 8.5% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.19x | 0.24x | 0.07x | 0.18x | 0.29x | 0.53x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.5x | 5.6x | 1.8x | 31.9x | 6.8x | 6.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.9x | 10.5x | 2.9x | -149.1x | 20.2x | 11.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.8x | 5.6x | 31.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.3x | 5.1x | 6.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.7x | 6.0x | 6.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 30,091 | 30,091 | 30,091 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 170,224 | 179,183 | 188,142 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (104,833) | (104,833) | (104,833) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 65,391 | 74,351 | 83,310 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 10,898.57 | 12,391.76 | 13,884.95 | ||||
| FX Rate: VND/VND | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 10,898.57 | 12,391.76 | 13,884.95 | 13,800.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -21.0% | -10.2% | 0.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TPC | PMP | PBP | BXH | SDG | BBS | |
| Enterprise Value | 88,201 | 147,673 | 31,914 | 32,838 | 340,879 | 187,633 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 243,532 | 20,929 | 39,558 | 7,824 | 89,860 | 2,503 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 8,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13,201 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (137,081) | (111,062) | (11,478) | 0 | (201,266) | (107,336) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (84,490) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 202,653 | 57,540 | 59,994 | 40,663 | 158,184 | 82,800 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 22.5 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 10.1 | 6.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 9,000.00 | 13,700.00 | 12,500.00 | 13,500.00 | 15,600.00 | 13,800.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 9,000.00 | 13,700.00 | 12,500.00 | 13,500.00 | 15,600.00 | 13,800.00 | |
| Trading Currency | VND | VND | VND | VND | VND | VND | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |