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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.0% - 9.0% | 9.5% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 4.3% - 5.3% | 4.8% |
Fair Value | €20.73 - €29.80 | €24.31 |
Upside | 19.7% - 72.1% | 40.4% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
Revenue | 6,451 | 7,314 | 7,908 | 8,429 | 8,573 | 8,561 | |
% Growth | 7.2% | 13.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 1.7% | -0.1% | |
EBITDA | 749 | 1,000 | 1,106 | 1,175 | 1,193 | 1,234 | |
% of Revenue | 11.6% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 14.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
(EUR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 1,000 | 1,106 | 1,175 | 1,193 | 1,234 | 1,234 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (155) | (166) | (187) | (174) | (206) | (198) | |
EBIT | 845 | 940 | 988 | 1,019 | 1,028 | 1,036 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (245) | (273) | (287) | (296) | (298) | (301) | |
NOPAT | 479 | 600 | 667 | 701 | 723 | 730 | 736 |
Capital Expenditures | (64) | (170) | (182) | (186) | (196) | (208) | (208) |
NWC Investment | 19 | 38 | 26 | 23 | 6 | (1) | 18 |
(+) D&A | 74 | 155 | 166 | 187 | 174 | 206 | 198 |
Free Cash Flow | 508 | 623 | 677 | 726 | 707 | 727 | 743 |
% Growth | 23% | 9% | 7% | -3% | 3% | 2% |