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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.8% - 9.8% | 10.3% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.3% - 3.3% | 2.8% |
| Fair Value | €2.51 - €6.60 | €4.28 |
| Upside | -70.9% - -23.3% | -50.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (EUR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 2,017 | 2,643 | 2,773 | 2,885 | 3,078 | 3,171 | 3,660 | 4,118 | 4,426 | 4,581 | 4,673 | |
| % Growth | 0.4% | 31.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 15.4% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 893 | 1,914 | 2,104 | 2,151 | 2,173 | 2,246 | 2,990 | 3,294 | 3,541 | 3,665 | 3,738 | |
| % of Revenue | 44.3% | 72.4% | 75.9% | 74.6% | 70.6% | 70.8% | 81.7% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (EUR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 1,914 | 2,104 | 2,151 | 2,173 | 2,246 | 2,990 | 3,294 | 3,541 | 3,665 | 3,738 | 3,738 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (912) | (933) | (974) | (919) | (977) | (1,128) | (1,269) | (1,364) | (1,412) | (1,440) | (1,215) | |
| EBIT | 1,002 | 1,171 | 1,177 | 1,255 | 1,269 | 1,862 | 2,025 | 2,177 | 2,253 | 2,298 | 2,524 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (140) | (164) | (165) | (176) | (178) | (261) | (284) | (305) | (315) | (322) | (353) | |
| NOPAT | 66 | 862 | 1,007 | 1,013 | 1,079 | 1,091 | 1,602 | 1,742 | 1,872 | 1,938 | 1,977 | 2,170 |
| Capital Expenditures | (4,179) | (2,114) | (2,314) | (1,860) | (1,879) | (2,085) | (1,128) | (1,269) | (1,364) | (1,253) | (1,279) | (1,279) |
| NWC Investment | (5) | (383) | (80) | (68) | (118) | (57) | (299) | (280) | (189) | (95) | (56) | (79) |
| (+) D&A | 815 | 912 | 933 | 974 | 919 | 977 | 1,128 | 1,269 | 1,364 | 1,412 | 1,440 | 1,215 |
| Free Cash Flow | (3,303) | (723) | (454) | 58 | 0 | (74) | 1,302 | 1,462 | 1,683 | 2,001 | 2,082 | 2,028 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | -99% | NM | NM | 12% | 15% | 19% | 4% | -3% | |