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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 12.0% - 11.0% | 11.5% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 6.9x - 8.9x | 7.9x |
Fair Value | €36.64 - €44.77 | €40.63 |
Upside | 13.5% - 38.7% | 25.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 10,573 | 11,155 | 11,786 | 12,673 | 13,308 | 14,578 |
% Growth | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 9.5% |
EBITDA | 535 | 929 | 1,029 | 1,136 | 1,207 | 1,468 |
% of Revenue | 5.1% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.1% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(EUR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 929 | 1,029 | 1,136 | 1,207 | 1,468 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (373) | (369) | (360) | (315) | (398) | |
EBIT | 556 | 659 | 776 | 892 | 1,070 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (195) | (231) | (272) | (312) | (375) | |
NOPAT | 255 | 361 | 429 | 504 | 580 | 696 |
Capital Expenditures | (121) | (237) | (257) | (279) | (326) | (333) |
NWC Investment | 27 | 37 | 40 | 56 | 40 | 81 |
(+) D&A | 143 | 373 | 369 | 360 | 315 | 398 |
Free Cash Flow | 304 | 534 | 581 | 642 | 609 | 841 |
% Growth | 75% | 9% | 10% | -5% | 38% |